问题如下：
Based on Exhibit 2, and assuming that the forecast for interest rates and Smith’s outlook for equity returns are validated, which bond’s option is most likely to be exercised?
选项：
A.Bond 2
B.Bond 3
C.Bond 4
解释：
C is correct.
If the central bank takes actions that lead to lower interest rates, the yields on Alpha’s bonds are likely to decrease. If the yield to maturity on Bond 4 (callable) falls below the 1.55% coupon rate, the call option will become valuable and Alpha may call the bond because it is in the money.
A is incorrect because if the equity market declines, the market value of Alpha stock will also likely decrease. Therefore, Bond 2 (convertible) would have a lower conversion value, and hence, the conversion option likely would not be exercised. Because Bond 2 is currently trading out of the money, it will likely trade further out of the money once the price of Alpha stock decreases.
B is incorrect because Bond 3 (putable) is more likely to be exercised in an increasing rather than a decreasing interest rate environment.
老师，我做题时候想看道题目 alpha 公司给的forecast给了波动率是15%和二叉树，我看第1个时间节点的int rate 是1.6% 和1.1%多， 因为执行option embeded的利率是1.55 ， 1.1离1.5太远了，利率下降得多，所以callable bond更倾向被执行。
可是我看答案说因为题目说int rate会下降是大环境下大家认为政府打算要降息，而不是alpha 公司自己的forecast.
您的回答， 截图， 题目不是说 consensus ， 也是就普遍认为的，而不是这Alpha机构的assumption呀？
为啥把这个作为题目里面的assumption？
