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月乔DD · 2020年03月14日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018123101000113

问题如下:

Thames reminds Cromwell that her model assumes zero interest rate volatility and a flat government yield curve. Cromwell responds that Thames should relax these unrealistic assumptions. Thames outlines the steps to take in valuing risky bonds under this scenario in Exhibit 1.

EXHIBIT 1 STEPS IN VALUING RISKY BONDS, ARBITRAGE-FREE FRAMEWORK


Which step in Exhibit 1 regarding valuing risky bonds has Thames most likely outlined correctly?

选项:

A.

Step 1.

B.

Step 2.

C.

Step 3.

解释:

Thames is correct in describing Step 3 but incorrect about both Step 1 and Step 2.

The third point in Step 1 is explained incorrectly. The par curve where each bond is priced at par value, not the spot curve, is used to derive implied zero-coupon rates. In the second point of Step 2, she is incorrect regarding the recovery rate. The assumption is not based on credit ratings. The recovery rate if default were to occur should conform to the seniority of the debt issue and the nature of the issuer’s assets. For instance, a firm with a high ratio of assets relative to the debt level and debt senior in the capital structure will result in a higher recovery for bondholders than one with the reverse situation.

不好意思老师,有点忘记了risk neutral pod, 可以解释一下step 2 第一句话么?

1 个答案

WallE_品职答疑助手 · 2020年03月15日

同学你好,

风险中性的概率,是基于模型假设(比如利率,sigma,历史数据) 算出来的一个违约概率。并不是真实发生的概率。现实生活中违不违约 只有在发生的那一瞬间才知道。

所以你只要知道信用模型中的违约概率是基于模型的,不是真实发生的即可。

我叫仙人涨 · 2020年03月15日

老师,可是何老师在接受风险中性POD包括了投资人的对违约的不确定性时候说的是, 因为是从市场价格推算出来的,而市场价格考虑了投资人因为不确定违约而再压价格,所以风险中性POD考虑了投资人对违约的不确定性。 按照何老师讲这个点的时候说的话,风险中性POD不是由市场价格推算出来的呢?为啥又是模型推出来的呢?

WallE_品职答疑助手 · 2020年03月16日

在怎么考虑和真实发生的违约也没有必然联系,就像你能考虑俄罗斯国债什么时候违约吗。该违约还不是违约了

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