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小锦鲤要加油 · 2019年12月28日

问一道题:NO.PZ201512181000007202

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

In Statement 2, Kynnersley implies that the portfolio:

选项:

A.

is at risk of losing $4,500 each trading day

B.

value is expected to decline by $90,000 or more once in 20 trading days.

C.

has a 5% chance of falling in value by a maximum of $90,000 on a single trading day.

解释:

B is correct. Value at risk is the minimum loss that would be expected a certain percentage of the time over a certain period of time. Statement 2 implies that there is a 5% chance the portfolio will fall in value by $90,000 (= $6,000,000 ×1.5%) or more in a single day. If VaR is measured on a daily basis and a typical month has 20–22 business days, then 5% of the days equates to about 1 day per month or once in 20 trading days.

不是说提到VaR一定要包含概率,时间段和损失吗,第二个选项没有概率啊

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2019年12月29日

同学你好,
这道题你对于VaR的理解是没问题的,B选项如果加上5%的概率描述会更好一些。不过这道题题目有一个前提,就是从statement 2里面能推断出什么结论,而题干里statement 2 中提到了5%。所以这道题B选项实际就是在问给定了5%概率的前提下,哪个描述正确。
如果以后遇到这种情况,把握不好概率是否可以使用,可以用排除法,一般另外两个都错的比较明显。加油

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