Wendy_品职助教 · 2019年05月15日
经济好的时候收益率曲线比经济差的时候更加平坦。只能说在the late stages of a business expansion ,收益率曲线是向下倾斜的,接下来经济会进入衰退阶段。
基础班讲义第123页有这个结论。
•A recession is often preceded by a flattening, or even an inversion, in the yield curve. In general, the late stages of a business expansion are often characterized by a peak in inflation and thus relatively high short-term interest rates. An inverted yield curve is often read as being a predictor of recession.