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华赞 · 2024年09月02日

不理解该题考点

NO.PZ2023091701000167

问题如下:

A quantitative analyst is preparing a performance report of a corporate bond portfolio. For the previous 1-year period, the analyst finds that the return on the portfolio was 4.4% and decomposes this return as follows:

  • Return attributable to the risk-free interest rate: 3.4%
  • Return attributable to the credit spread: 2.0%
  • Loss rate over the period: 1.0%
When observing the portfolio’s returns over a 3-year period, the analyst notes that the difference between the portfolio’s return attributable to the credit spread and its loss rate remained positive and varied from 0.7% to 1.3% each year. Which of the following would the analyst be correct to identify as the most likely explanation for the persistent positive difference between the credit spread and the loss rate?

选项:

A.Bond investors are being compensated for their exposure to systematic risk. B.Credit spreads are specifically set by market makers to be greater than loss rates. C.Corporate bonds have more liquidity than risk-free sovereign debt. D.Credit spreads tend to be negatively correlated with interest rates.

解释:

A is correct. The main reason that the return on corporate bonds tends to be persistently greater than the risk-free interest rate (which would be the case if the return attributable to credit spread was exactly offset by the loss rate) is that the default risk in bonds cannot be fully diversified away and therefore the portfolio is exposed to systematic risk that must be compensated for.

In other words, investors are compensated for the additional risk that a wave of defaults might occur all at once, although this does not happen during normal market conditions (and did not happen in the three-year period observed by the analyst). If defaults were truly independent one would expect the gap between credit spreads and loss rates to be much smaller.

B is incorrect. Credit spreads are determined by the market and fluctuate based on market perceptions. They can be higher or lower than loss rates, and often converge towards loss rates during times of crisis.

C is incorrect. Corporate bonds have less liquidity than risk-free sovereign debt, and the lower liquidity might be a contributing factor to the higher returns.

D is incorrect. This does not explain the relationship between returns and the loss rate.

题目出现的数字和答题有关吗?

1 个答案

pzqa39 · 2024年09月03日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


没什么关系,直接看问题的那段话就好了,“在观察投资组合在3年期间的回报时,分析师注意到,信用利差的回报和损失率之间的差额保持为正,并且每年从0.7%到1.3%不等。以下哪个选项最可能解释信用利差和损失率之间持续的正差额?”这道题就是在问信用利差和损失率之间的差额为正的原因。


选项:

A. 债券投资者因承受系统性风险而获得补偿。

B. 市场制造商特别设定的信用利差高于损失率。

C. 企业债券的流动性高于无风险主权债务。

D. 信用利差往往与利率呈负相关。

解析:

A 选项是正确的。公司债券回报通常会持续高于无风险利率,主要原因是债券的违约风险无法完全被分散,因此投资组合暴露于需要补偿的系统性风险中。

换句话说,投资者会因可能发生一波违约的额外风险而获得补偿,尽管在正常市场条件下这一风险不会发生(在分析师观察的三年期间也没有发生)。如果违约是完全独立的,我们会期望信用利差和损失率之间的差距要小得多。

B 选项不正确。信用利差由市场决定,并且根据市场的看法波动。它们可能高于或低于损失率,并且在危机时期往往趋向于损失率。

C 选项不正确。企业债券的流动性低于无风险主权债务,较低的流动性可能是较高回报的一个原因。

D 选项不正确。这并没有解释回报与损失率之间的关系。

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