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Emma0627 · 2024年08月19日

H Model

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2018103102000046

问题如下：

Jacques is the portfolio manager of AB pension and she considers adding PZ Inc. to her portfolio. Previously, she believed the company would have extraordinary growth for 4 years and normal growth thereafter. After carefully considering the characteristics of the company and its competitors, she is wondering what the consequences would be if the duration of the first stage was assumed to be 8 years instead of 4, with all the other assumptions/estimates remaining the same. Which of the following statement is true?

Statement 1: If the H model is used, the total value estimated would increase.

Statement 2: By using DDM, the proportion of the total value of the stock represented by the second stage would not change.

选项：

A.

Statement 1.

B.

Statement 2.

C.

Both of it.

解释：

A is correct.

考点：DDM& H-model

解析：A是正确的。Statement 2错在如果较高的增长率将持续更长的时间，那么股票的价值就会上升。

看了所有分析，突然有点混淆。这个H Model用在第一阶段还是第二阶段，因为第一阶段的高速增长看起来是持续的，不应该用三角，那么三角面积小于矩形面积，不是应该低估价值吗。statement1 也不是在问4年和8年的区别而是H model导致的区别。

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王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年08月19日

同学你好， H model是用在第一阶段到第二阶段过度的时候的。也就是原本的DDM下是第一阶段高增长8年后突然就下降到第二阶段的永续增长率，而H model就是高增长了8年后，缓缓的以一个三角形下降到第二阶段的永续增长率。所以H model从面积上比DDM多了一个三角形，value就会更高

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NO.PZ2018103102000046问题如下Jacques is the portfolio manager of pension anshe consirs aing PZ Into her portfolio. Previously, she believethe company woulhave extraornary growth for 4 years annormgrowth thereafter. After carefully consiring the characteristiof the company anits competitors, she is wonring whthe consequences woulif the ration of the first stage wassumeto 8 years insteof 4, with all the other assumptions/estimates remaining the same. Whiof the following statement is true?Statement 1: If the H mol is use the totvalue estimatewoulincrease.Statement 2: using M, the proportion of the totvalue of the storepresentethe seconstage woulnot change.Statement 1. Statement 2. Both of it. A is correct.考点M H-mol解析A是正确的。Statement 2错在如果较高的增长率将持续更长的时间，那么股票的价值就会上升。我的理解是在永续经营的假设下，第一阶段只是增加了四年，第二阶段仍然是经对的大头，姥第二阶段的占比变化是否可以忽略不计，那么第二项也可以是正确的？

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