NO.PZ2018091901000054
问题如下：
Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:
Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:
Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.
Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:
选项：
A. invert.
flatten.
steepen
解释：
C is correct.
The current yield
curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase
(curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary
conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely
steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase
of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery
phase.
解析：
Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。
所以只有C选项正确。
在slowdown阶段，因为央行加息或者加准，短期利率很高，yield curve变平，则下一个阶段可能是降准降息，曲线steepen。
但如果slowdown阶段曲线invert了，他降低短期利率至少得先变平，再变陡峭，此题没考虑这种情况
