NO.PZ2021090805000018
问题如下：
Tom and his wife discussed retirement income goals and amounts with their investment advisor Johnson. They hope to maintain their current living standards after retirement and emphasize the importance of having confidence in achieving income goals for the rest of their lives.
According to Tom Tong's description of his retirement income goal, which of the following is the best method to analyze this goal?
选项：
A.
Annuity pricing
B.
Mortality tables
C.
Monte Carlo simulation
解释：
A is correct. Tom emphasized the importance of achieving the lifetime income goal of maintaining an inflation-adjusted current standard of living throughout retirement. Analyzing the pricing of joint lifetime annuity to ensure this goal is the best way to achieve it. A joint life annuity provide a series of guaranteed fixed payments, which can be exchanged for a one-time payment as long as any of them are still alive.
B is not correct. The mortality table shows a person's life expectancy at any specific age. One potential issue with using mortality tables as the only method to analyze Benetton's retirement goals is the probability that one or both of them will exceed the life expectancy of the general population. Therefore, they run the risk of outliving their assets and may need to reduce their annual income (spending) goal at some point.
C is incorrect. Monte Carlo simulation analyzed the likelihood of a client's actual investment portfolio meeting their anticipated retirement needs. Although Monte Carlo's output will include the probability of achieving Tom's goals, it cannot guarantee that their goals will be achieved, nor would it necessarily measure the “shortfall magnitude” to achieving their goal. Therefore, they run the risk of outliving their assets and may need to reduce their annual income (spending) goal at some point.
A是正确的。Tom强调了实现终身收入目标的重要性，即在整个退休期间保持经通胀调整的当前生活水平。通过对联合终身年金进行定价来分析这一目标是确保实现这一目标的最佳方法。联合终身年金提供了一系列有保证的固定支付，只要他们中的任何一个还活着，就可以换取一次性付款。
B不正确。死亡率表显示了一个人在任何特定年龄的预期寿命。将使用死亡率表作为分析贝纳通退休目标的唯一方法会有一个潜在问题，他们中的一个或两个的年龄超过普通人群预期寿命的概率。因此，他们面临着超过资产寿命的风险，可能需要在某个时候降低年收入（支出）目标。
C不正确。蒙特卡洛模拟分析了客户实际投资组合满足预期退休需求的可能性。尽管蒙特卡洛的产出将包括实现Tom目标的概率，但它不能保证他们的目标得到实现，也不一定能衡量实现目标的“缺口大小”。因此，他们面临着超过资产寿命的风险，可能需要在某个时候降低年收入（支出）目标。
这是我的推理 -
- Mortality table: when the client is worried about not dying unexpectedly.
- Annuity: when the client wants to make sure a goal is met.
- monte Carlo: when the client wants to know the situation under different situations such as tax policy change or sudden inheritance
