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活捉一只小鲤鱼 · 2024年03月07日

这个知识点在哪里,能发一下讲义截图吗?

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NO.PZ202105270100000201

问题如下:

Calculate the implied contribution to Cambo’s US equity return forecast from the expected change in the P/E.

选项:

解释:

The growth rate in the aggregate market value of equity is expressed as a sum of the following four factors: (1) growth rate of nominal GDP, (2) the change in the share of profits in GDP, (3) the change in P/E, and (4) the dividend yield. The growth rate of nominal GDP is the sum of the growth of real GDP and inflation.

The growth rate of real GDP is estimated as the sum of the growth rate in the labor input and the growth rate in labor productivity. Based on the chief economist’s estimates, the macroeconomic forecast indicates that nominal GDP will increase by 4.0% (= 0.5% labor input + 1.3% productivity + 2.2% inflation).

Assuming a 2.8% dividend yield and no change in the share of profits in the economy, Cambo’s forecast of a 9.0% annual increase in equity returns implies a 2.2% long-term contribution (i.e., 9.0% equity return − 4.0% nominal GDP − 2.8% dividend yield) from an expansion in the P/E.

权益总市值的增长率表示为以下四个因素的总和:(1)名义GDP增长率,(2)利润占GDP份额的变化,(3)市盈率的变化,(4)股息收益率。名义GDP增长率是实际GDP增长率和通货膨胀率之和。

实际GDP增长率估计为劳动投入增长率与劳动生产率增长率之和。根据首席经济学家的预测,宏观经济预测显示,名义GDP将增长4.0%(= 0.5%的劳动投入+ 1.3%的生产率+ 2.2%的通货膨胀)。

假设股息收益率为2.8%,且利润在经济中所占的份额不变,Cambo预测股权回报年增长率为9.0%,这意味着市盈率的为2.2%(即9.0%股权回报- 4.0%名义GDP - 2.8%股息收益率)

就是我去翻了讲义,没有看到div yield部分,这里好像没有讲过?

活捉一只小鲤鱼 · 2024年03月11日

假设股息收益率为2.8%,且利润在经济中所占的份额不变,Cambo预测股权回报年增长率为9.0%,这意味着市盈率的为2.2%(即9.0%股权回报- 4.0%名义GDP - 2.8%股息收益率),这里是怎么来的,没明白。可以说一下推导的公式来源吗

3 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年05月21日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


该页讲义,讲述了原理。如果题目单独给出INFLATION,可以加上,这可以算作一个默认的做法。


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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

源_品职助教 · 2024年03月11日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


如截图所示,

股权回报=资本增值回报+股息收入。

所以9-1.8就是资本增值回报。

依然如图所示,

资本增值回报=GDP的增加+E/GDP的增加+P/E的增加

利润在经济中所占的份额不变,也就是“E/GDP的增加”这一项等于0

那么P/E的增加=资本增值回报-GDP的增加=(9-1.8)-4.0%

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2024年03月07日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这里可以对应咱们墨迹版讲义P80的内容哈

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

Mlj · 2024年05月20日

请问讲义里哪部分截图有显示GDP growth rate=labor productivity+labor force+inflation?没看到inflation的部分?

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NO.PZ202105270100000201 问题如下 Calculate the impliecontribution to Cambo’s US equity return forecast from the expectechange in the P/E. The growth rate in the aggregate market value of equity is expressea sum of the following four factors: (1) growth rate of nominG, (2) the change in the share of profits in G, (3) the change in P/E, an(4) the vinyiel The growth rate of nominG is the sum of the growth of reG aninflation. The growth rate of reG is estimatethe sum of the growth rate in the labor input anthe growth rate in labor proctivity. Baseon the chief economist’s estimates, the macroeconomic forecast incates thnominG will increase 4.0% (= 0.5% labor input + 1.3% proctivity + 2.2% inflation). Assuming a 2.8% vinyielanno change in the share of profits in the economy, Cambo’s forecast of a 9.0% annuincrease in equity returns implies a 2.2% long-term contribution (i.e., 9.0% equity return − 4.0% nominG − 2.8% vinyiel from expansion in the P/E.权益总市值的增长率表示为以下四个因素的总和:(1)名义G增长率,(2)利润占G份额的变化,(3)市盈率的变化,(4)股息收益率。名义G增长率是实际G增长率和通货膨胀率之和。实际G增长率估计为劳动投入增长率与劳动生产率增长率之和。根据首席经济学家的预测,宏观经济预测显示,名义G将增长4.0%(= 0.5%的劳动投入+ 1.3%的生产率+ 2.2%的通货膨胀)。假设股息收益率为2.8%,且利润在经济中所占的份额不变,Cambo预测股权回报年增长率为9.0%,这意味着市盈率的为2.2%(即9.0%股权回报- 4.0%名义G - 2.8%股息收益率) 如题。

2024-10-19 16:57 1 · 回答

NO.PZ202105270100000201 问题如下 Calculate the impliecontribution to Cambo’s US equity return forecast from the expectechange in the P/E. The growth rate in the aggregate market value of equity is expressea sum of the following four factors: (1) growth rate of nominG, (2) the change in the share of profits in G, (3) the change in P/E, an(4) the vinyiel The growth rate of nominG is the sum of the growth of reG aninflation. The growth rate of reG is estimatethe sum of the growth rate in the labor input anthe growth rate in labor proctivity. Baseon the chief economist’s estimates, the macroeconomic forecast incates thnominG will increase 4.0% (= 0.5% labor input + 1.3% proctivity + 2.2% inflation). Assuming a 2.8% vinyielanno change in the share of profits in the economy, Cambo’s forecast of a 9.0% annuincrease in equity returns implies a 2.2% long-term contribution (i.e., 9.0% equity return − 4.0% nominG − 2.8% vinyiel from expansion in the P/E.权益总市值的增长率表示为以下四个因素的总和:(1)名义G增长率,(2)利润占G份额的变化,(3)市盈率的变化,(4)股息收益率。名义G增长率是实际G增长率和通货膨胀率之和。实际G增长率估计为劳动投入增长率与劳动生产率增长率之和。根据首席经济学家的预测,宏观经济预测显示,名义G将增长4.0%(= 0.5%的劳动投入+ 1.3%的生产率+ 2.2%的通货膨胀)。假设股息收益率为2.8%,且利润在经济中所占的份额不变,Cambo预测股权回报年增长率为9.0%,这意味着市盈率的为2.2%(即9.0%股权回报- 4.0%名义G - 2.8%股息收益率) 老师其他部分算对了,但是有个问题就是△%G=1.3%+0.5%=1.8%,算出来的是实际的G吗,我记得二级经济学里面也有这个计算,但是没印象这种算法,算出来是实际的还是名义的了

2024-06-02 23:09 1 · 回答

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