NO.PZ2022122601000004
问题如下:
Wakuluk’s approach to economic forecasting utilizes a structural model in conjunction with a diffusion index to determine the current phase of a country’s business cycle. This approach has produced successful predictions in the past, thus Wakuluk has high confidence in the predictions.
Wakuluk’s approach to economic forecasting:
选项:
A.is flexible and limited in complexity B.can give a false sense of precision and provide false signals C.imposes no consistency of analysis across items or at different points in time解释:
Correct Answer: B
B is correct. Wakuluk’s approach to economic forecasting utilizes both a structural model (e.g., an econometric model approach) and a diffusion index (e.g., a leading indicator-based approach). However, the two approaches have weaknesses: An econometric model approach may give a false sense of precision, and a leading indicator-based approach can provide false signals. Two strengths of the checklist approach are its flexibility and limited complexity, although one weakness is that it imposes no consistency of analysis across items or at different points in time.
中文解析:
正确答案:BB正确。Wakuluk的经济预测方法利用了结构模型(例如,计量经济模型方法)和扩散指数(例如,基于领先指标的方法)。然而,这两种方法都有缺点:计量经济模型方法可能会给人一种错误的精确感觉,而基于领先指标的方法可能会提供错误的信号。检查表方法的两个优点是它的灵活性和有限的复杂性,尽管一个缺点是它在项目之间或在不同的时间点上没有强制分析的一致性。
C选项是什么意思?哪个知识点?