估值计算 DDM多阶段

NO.PZ2018103102000076

问题如下：

Company M`s dividends are suspended for the first four years because of the significant growth opportunity. The management states that the company will pay the dividend of $2.5 per share during the fifth year. Thereafter, the dividend will continue to grow at 5% per year into the indefinite future. The required rate of return is 12%. What`s the intrinsic value of Company M`s stock?

选项：

$20.83

$35.71

$22.69

解释：

C is correct.

考点：Dividend discount model

解析:

$P_4=\frac{D_5}{r-g}=\frac{2.5}{12\%-5\%}=\$35.71\\V_0=\frac{P_4}{\left(1+r\right)^4}=\frac{35.71}{1.12^4}=\$22.69$

老师，这道题我读完题把它理解成了三阶段的Model，我把第5年单独作为了一个阶段，然后5年乘增长率，然后求出PV，再用CF求最后值，这样可以么？

2）1-4年是没红利，CF1-CF4不输入零，可以么？

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年07月29日

同学你好，问题1，

如果看成三阶段，那第一阶段就是第1到第4年，分红都是0的阶段。第二阶段就是第5年分红D5，第三阶段就是第6年，分红D6=D5*（1+g),然后计算D7=D6*（1+g),再用GGM带入D7计算P6= D7/（r-g)——此时第6年有两笔现金流D6+P6

然后这三个阶段都折现到0时刻，就可以得出正确答案

你这里列出的三阶段好像不太对，你可以再参考下助教的过程

问题2，如果用NPV计算的话，CF1到CF4必须输入0，因为这代表了前面4年没有现金流入（所以不能不输0），CF0也必须输0代表0时刻没有现金流。

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NO.PZ2018103102000076问题如下 Company M`s vin are suspenfor the first four years because of the significant growth opportunity. The management states ththe company will pthe vinof $2.5 per share ring the fifth year. Thereafter, the vinwill continue to grow 5% per yeinto the infinite future. The requirerate of return is 12%. What`s the intrinsic value of Company M`s stock? A.$20.83B.$35.71C.$22.69C is correct.考点vinscount mol解析:P4=r−g=2.512%−5%=$35.71V0=P4(1+r)4=35.711.124=$22.69P_4=\frac{5}{r-g}=\frac{2.5}{12\%-5\%}=\$35.71\\V_0=\frac{P_4}{\left(1+r\right)^4}=\frac{35.71}{1.12^4}=\$22.69P4=r−g=12%−5%2.5=$35.71V0=(1+r)4P4=1.12435.71=$22.69为什么不是 2.5*1.05/7%

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估值计算 DDM多阶段

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