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yu · 2023年06月30日

为什么短期更陡,不是平缓之后要invert 吗

NO.PZ2022122601000007

问题如下:

Observation 3The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.invert

B. flatten

C.

steepen

解释:

Correct Answer: C

C is correct. The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

中文解析:

正确答案:C

C正确。Y国当前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平坦到倒挂),债券收益率开始反映紧缩状况(即债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线很可能在短期内变得更陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡相一致,并且在初始复苏阶段的尖端是最陡的。

债券收益率开始反映紧缩状况(即债券收益率正在下降)

。这条曲线很可能在短期内变得更陡,

商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡相一致,

并且在初始复苏阶段的尖端是最陡的。


可以解释下这三句话吗?

2 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年07月03日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


是不是 已经进入contraction 前期。 整体背景 不在 peak( flat to invert 几乎已经度过,即将成为过去式)。状态在 slowdown phase, 马上到萧条。所以 是 contraction--很快变陡峭。


同学理解正确。

债券收益率已经在反应contraction时期了。不久的将来,债券收益率可以继续反应contraction,也可能反应contraction后的initial recovery,不管是contraction还是initial recovery,债券收益率曲线的形状都是steepen.

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年06月30日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


可以解释下这三句话吗?


同学最好先按照以下方式来理解。

本题说,现在的经济处于 slowdown 阶段。债券收益率在反应contractionary阶段。

那么t likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term,在未来一个较近的阶段,的债券收益率曲线形状是什么。


我们知道,contraction阶段,债券收益率曲线是陡峭的。contraction后的initial recovery阶段,债券收益率也是陡峭的。因此选C。


在有了上述基础后,再来看同学说的这三句话。

债券收益率开始反映紧缩状况(即债券收益率正在下降),这是翻译with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary。是文中原句。

注意,这里的contraction最好理解成经济萧条,会更准确。正确的翻译是:债券收益率开始反映经济萧条状况(即债券收益率正在下降)



。这条曲线很可能在短期内变得更陡,

这是知识点,contraction阶段对应陡峭的债券收益率曲线。


商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡相一致,

并且在初始复苏阶段的尖端是最陡的。

contraction阶段和ninitial recovery,曲线都是陡峭。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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