贸易顺差

NO.PZ2020012102000010 问题如下 Looking inpenntly eaof the economic observations below, incate the country where analyst woulexpeto see a strengthening currenfor eaobservation. Note: The italicells represent the comparatively stronger measure, where analyst coulexpeto see a strengthening currenbaseon the factor being inpenntly reviewe析斜体的单元格代表的是相对较强的币种，分析师可以根据独立评估的因素预计货币会走强。预期通胀越低的货币越强势短期利率越高的货币越强势经济增长越快随的货币越强势越开放，越能保证外资前来投资的货币越强势贸易顺差的货币更强势 但是为什么短期利率越高的货币越强势？

NO.PZ2020012102000010问题如下Looking inpenntly eaof the economic observations below, incate the country where analyst woulexpeto see a strengthening currenfor eaobservation. Note: The italicells represent the comparatively stronger measure, where analyst coulexpeto see a strengthening currenbaseon the factor being inpenntly reviewe析斜体的单元格代表的是相对较强的币种，分析师可以根据独立评估的因素预计货币会走强。预期通胀越低的货币越强势短期利率越高的货币越强势经济增长越快随的货币越强势越开放，越能保证外资前来投资的货币越强势贸易顺差的货币更强势 经常性账户盈余，实体经济变好，资本流入，本币升值。另一方面资本账户赤字，资本流出，本币贬值。这个感觉是相反方向，请问怎样得出汇率上升的结论呢

NO.PZ2020012102000010 问题如下 Looking inpenntly eaof the economic observations below, incate the country where analyst woulexpeto see a strengthening currenfor eaobservation. Note: The italicells represent the comparatively stronger measure, where analyst coulexpeto see a strengthening currenbaseon the factor being inpenntly reviewe析斜体的单元格代表的是相对较强的币种，分析师可以根据独立评估的因素预计货币会走强。预期通胀越低的货币越强势短期利率越高的货币越强势经济增长越快随的货币越强势越开放，越能保证外资前来投资的货币越强势贸易顺差的货币更强势 在所有的判断中，仅有short-term这一项与答案有异议。如果题目是站在短期的角度考虑问题，即所谓考虑Overshooting的问题的话，为什么Inflation高的国家不会因为Inflation高，导致Interest rate高而导致货币强势呢？因此我建议答案站在Cuurent Account机制中的PPP，以及CapitAccount机制中的UIRP来考虑，修改Short-term这一列的答案。如果不修改答案的话，我该怎么判定在当前情况，我应该考虑Overshooting导致货币强势，还是在长期因为利率高导致货币贬值呢？谢谢老师！

NO.PZ2020012102000010 问题如下 Looking inpenntly eaof the economic observations below, incate the country where analyst woulexpeto see a strengthening currenfor eaobservation. Note: The italicells represent the comparatively stronger measure, where analyst coulexpeto see a strengthening currenbaseon the factor being inpenntly reviewe析斜体的单元格代表的是相对较强的币种，分析师可以根据独立评估的因素预计货币会走强。预期通胀越低的货币越强势短期利率越高的货币越强势经济增长越快随的货币越强势越开放，越能保证外资前来投资的货币越强势贸易顺差的货币更强势 ST interest rate 高的货币升值，LT interest rate高的货币是不是贬值？ST是overshooting，LT是根据IRP，可以这么理解么

NO.PZ2020012102000010 问题如下 Looking inpenntly eaof the economic observations below, incate the country where analyst woulexpeto see a strengthening currenfor eaobservation. Note: The italicells represent the comparatively stronger measure, where analyst coulexpeto see a strengthening currenbaseon the factor being inpenntly reviewe析斜体的单元格代表的是相对较强的币种，分析师可以根据独立评估的因素预计货币会走强。预期通胀越低的货币越强势短期利率越高的货币越强势经济增长越快随的货币越强势越开放，越能保证外资前来投资的货币越强势贸易顺差的货币更强势 Expectation inflation is higher in country Y, so currenY appreciate.Short term gov rate increase in country Y, so currenY appreciate.ExpecteG growth is higher in country Y, so currenY appreciate.New lthencourage F pass country Y rather thin country X, so currenY appreciate.Current account ficit in Y, so currenY appreciate.