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dognmnm · 2023年02月23日

面對單筆負債的免疫條件

NO.PZ2018120301000036

问题如下:

Chaopraya is an investment advisor for high-net-worth individuals. One of her clients, Schuylkill, plans to fund her grandson’s college education and considers two options:

  • Option 1 Contribute a lump sum of $300,000 in 10 years.
  • Option 2 Contribute four level annual payments of $76,500 starting in 10 years.
The grandson will start college in 10 years. Schuylkill seeks to immunize the contribution today.

For Option 1, Chaopraya calculates the present value of the $300,000 as $234,535. To immunize the future single outfow, Chaopraya considers three bond portfolios given that no zero- coupon government bonds are available.

The three portfolios consist of non-callable, fi­xed-rate, coupon-bearing government bonds considered free of default risk. Chaopraya prepares a comparative analysis of the three portfolios, presented in Exhibit 1.


Chaopraya evaluates the three bond portfolios and selects one to recommend to Schuylkill.

Recommend the portfolio in Exhibit 1 that would best achieve the immunization. Justify your response


选项:

解释:


Justification:

Portfolio A is the most appropriate portfolio because it is the only one that satisfies the three criteria for immunizing a single future outflow (liability), given that the cash flow yields are sufficiently close in value:

1. Market Value: Portfolio A’s initial market value of $235,727 exceeds the outflow’s present value of $234,535. Portfolio B is not appropriate because its market value of $233,428 is less than the present value of the future outflow of $234,535. A bond portfolio structured to immunize a single liability must have an initial market value that equals or exceeds the present value of the liability.

2. Macaulay Duration: Portfolio A’s Macaulay duration of 9.998 closely matches the 10-year horizon of the outflow. Portfolio C is not appropriate because its Macaulay duration of 9.503 is furthest away from the investment horizon of 10 years.

3. Convexity: Although Portfolio C has the lowest convexity at 108.091, its Macaulay duration does not closely match the outflow amount. Of the remaining two portfolios, Portfolio A has the lower convexity at 119.055; this lower convexity will minimize structural risk. Default risk (credit risk) is not considered because the portfolios consist of government bonds that presumably have default probabilities approaching zero.

Default risk (credit risk) is not considered because the portfolios consist of government bonds that presumably have default probabilities approaching zero.

我这边的判断标准是首先A>L, 所以只剩下a & c可选, 再看一下十年期, 两个的duration都很接近十年期, 所以无法判断, 最后看convexity发现c的convexity最小, 符合单个负债的免疫条件, 所以选c, 但详解却说duration更重要, 这怎么理解

2 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2023年02月27日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


我想确认一下这个duration大概差了0.5算差很多吗? 我能理解不会完全一样, 但我很难判断到底多少算差很多


0.5算多。一般符合要求的Portfolio,差距都在0.01这个数量级上,或者最多就是0.1这个层级上。


如果考试自己拿捏不准的话,可以参考其他Portfolio的数据。

注意到,Portfolio A和portfolio B,macaulay duration的差距就只有0.001这个数量级,而Portfolio c的差距在0.5,明显Portfolio c就差距太大了,于是直接排除portfolio C。这样通过对比就能感受到题目里面的“近似”是在哪个数量级上。通过具体题干给的数据来判断肯定不会出错哈。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

发亮_品职助教 · 2023年02月27日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


我这边的判断标准是首先A>L, 所以只剩下a & c可选, 再看一下十年期, 两个的duration都很接近十年期, 所以无法判断


通过A>L,留下了Portfolio a 和c。然后在Portfolio a和c里面,通过Duration筛选排除了C,因为C的duration 9.503太小了,不够要求的约等于10。

最后只留下了Portfolio a。所以portfolio a是最优的。


在筛选Portfolio时,要利用3个条件逐一排除。

比如,这道题先利用PV Asset>PV Liability条件,先排除了Portfolio B。所以剩下要在Portfolio A和Portfolio C里面选。

接着利用第2个条件,Macaulay duration相等。在portfolio C里面,duraton差太远了,所以排除,只留下了Portfolio A满足条件。

因为这两个条件已经选出是Portfolio A了,所以就没必要比较convexity了。

如果Portfolio A和Portfolio B都满足以上2个条件,在此基础上,我们再比较convexity,看哪个convexity小选哪个。


在选的时候,必须要满足的是PV Asset>PV liability,Macaulay duration asset = Macaulay duration liability。

在满足条件的基础上,再寻找Convexity最小的组合。

那也就是说,在单期负债匹配这里,convexity是conditional条件,必须要满足PV和macaulay duration的基础上,再找convexity最小的组合。

并不是说一上来就找convexity最小的,如果convexity最小,而pv和duration不满足条件,一样无法做Duration-matching。


筛选的时候就注意按照上面的步骤,先从PV开始排除Portfolio,然后看Duration,最后再看convexity。另外,实际在做题的时候,大小近似满足条件就行,不一定会严丝合缝的正好相等。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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