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Spencer · 2022年12月17日

Conservatism bias和Representativeness bias

NO.PZ2022052202000002

问题如下:

In the 1980s, Japan was viewed by many FMPs as the model economy. Although its growth began to decelerate sharply by 1990, it was not until the mid to late 1990s that FMPs’ GDP forecasts were consistently achieved.

By taking several years to adapt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibited which behavioral bias?

选项:

A.

Mental accounting

B.

Overconfidence

C.

Conservatism

解释:

C is correct. Conservatism bias results in maintain or only slowly updating views and forecasts despite the presence of new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to update forecasts, despite materially different new information for several years.

老师请问这两者的区别是什么呢?Conservatism bias和Representativeness bias


Conservatism bias反映的行为偏差是保守性偏差,即使有了新的信息,分析师依旧维持原有的观点,或者缓慢的更新观点;那Representativeness bias呢?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2022年12月19日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


1

Representativeness 是重视 new information, 轻视 base information, 结果是采纳观点或预测时,几乎完全基于新信息

"Adopt a view or a forecast based almost exclusively on new information or a small sample."

Conservatism bias 是重视 base information,轻视 new information,保持或缓慢地更新一个观点或预测,即使有新的信息出现。

"Maintain or be slow to update a view or a forecast, even when presented with new information."

基础班讲义,专门放了例题,对比了有这两个偏差的投资者的处理方式的差异哈 (P28、P34)

2

另外,历年真题中,有两道题考查过: [2018-4-B](1.4) , [2017-5-A](1.2)

格式说明: [真题](经典题) 。例: [2018-4-B](1.4) ,即真题 2018 年第 4 题的 B 问,经典题 R1 的 1.4 题

建议同学先把这两道题做一下,解题思路可以听一下经典题老师的讲解,感觉一下协会对这两个偏差的考查

如果备考时间紧张,只听其中一道的讲解即可,另外一道的考法是一样的,只是换了案例背景

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!