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王楚溪 · 2022年04月05日

请问这里指的default probability和风险中性default probability是不是不是一回事?

NO.PZ2020033002000038

问题如下:

The KMV model is used to calculate the expected default frequency. Regarding the sensitivity of expected default frequency, which of the following is not correct?

选项:

A.

When the company's leverage decreases, the company is less likely to default.

B.

When the company's stock price rises, the company is less likely to default.

C.

The expected default frequency is the same as the risk-neutral probability of default from Merton’s model.

D.Capital structure assumption is more complicated in the KMV model than in Merton model.

解释:

C is correct.

考点:The KMV Approach

解析:KMV得到的EDF用的是ROA,而risk-neutral PD是在假设期望收益是rf的情况下得到的,所以不一样。


辅导员好,强化班笔记上写的“EDF, the same as the default probability”, 这里的default probability指的不是莫顿模型里的风险中性违约概率对吗?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2022年04月06日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


KMV求EDF用的是equity的收益率ROA,它假定公司的资产结构比merton复杂。 而risk-neutral PD是在假设期望收益是无风险收益率的情况下得到的(所以merton那个违约率是风险中性违约率),所以不一样。

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