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moon · 2022年03月03日

老师,请问为什么低利率货币又叫做forward premium currency?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201601050100001503

问题如下:

Identify two strategies Delgado should use to earn a positive roll yield. Describe the specific steps needed to execute each strategy.


选项:

解释:


Given that the base currency (the US dollar) is trading at a forward premium, the hedge requires the sale of US dollar forward, resulting in a positive roll yield. The concept of roll yield is very similar to forward rate bias and the carry trade. Here, Delgado is suggesting a strategy to pursue when there is a negative roll yield, because a hedger trading against the forward bias would be buying US dollars at a forward premium instead of selling them. The carry trade strategy of borrowing in low-yield currencies and investing in high-yield currencies is equivalent to trading the forward rate bias, not against it.

中文解析:

基于整个题干的背景可知:本币是EUR,外币是USD。因此担心外币贬值,需要short forward on EUR/USD(也就是解析里面说的base currency应该是USD)

现在美元存在远期溢价,即F>S,所以short forward on EUR/USD的头寸,计算roll yield=F-S/S也会有正的收益。

另外因为美元的利率低于欧元的利率,可以执行carry trade策略,借低利率货币投资于高利率货币,其中低利率货币又叫做forward premium currency,高利率货币又叫做forward discount currency。

老师,请问为什么低利率货币又叫做forward premium currency?

1 个答案

Hertz_品职助教 · 2022年03月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好

可以有两个角度来理解:

角度1:

资本都是逐利的,因此市场上的钱都会大量涌入利率高的国家,但是将来呢,钱最终是要从高利率国家撤走的,撤走的时候就会抛售该国家货币,这就导致高利率国家货币贬值,那么相对的低利率国家货币升值,所以说低利率货币可以叫做forward premium currency。

角度2:

(1)我们可以用covered interest rate parity(抛补的利率平价公式)来解释,根据. covered interest rate parity:F/S0=(1+r_A)/(1+r_B) (汇率标价形式为A/B); 其中r_A

(2)得到F

两种理解方法都可以,同学可以选择自己觉得比较简单的方法来理解

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