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柴柴 · 2022年01月17日

equilibrium real exchange rate的意思

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assumethat the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency whilethe EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed tofluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchangerate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibriumvalue of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spreadbetween the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflationdifferential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

Allelse equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead todepreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibriumreal exchange rate + (realinterest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


想请问一下 我记得基础班中说公式中equilibrium real exchange rate的意思是汇率水平会沿均值上下波动,那题目中说汇率上升的意思不就是未来会朝着均值方向移动,就是贬值吗

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年01月17日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


equilibrium real exchange rate的意思是汇率水平会沿均值上下波动


是的,理解正确。


那题目中说汇率上升的意思不就是未来会朝着均值方向移动,就是贬值吗

题目问的是,哪种情况会造成汇率贬值。

根据公式,real exchange rate贬值,是什么原因引起的。


一是均衡利率下降,二实际利率下降,三是通货膨胀升高。

那么看3个选项,哪个符合3个条件之一,只有C符合,通胀升高。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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