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朱明远 · 2021年04月14日

问一道题：NO.PZ2018062002000166

  1. CFA I
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2018062002000166

问题如下：

Current price per share $20

Current annual dividend per share $2

Annual dividend growth rate for Years 1 – 4: 5%

Annual dividend growth rate for year 5 onwards： 3%

Required rate of return 10%

Based on the above information, calculate the intrinsic value of the stock by using the DDM model. The stock is most likely:

选项：

A.

undervalued.

B.

overvalued.

C.

fairly valued.

解释：

A is correct.

The current price of €20 is less than the intrinsic value of €31.56;therefore, the stock appears to be currently undervalued. According to the two-stage dividend discount model:

V0=∑t=1nD0(1+gs)t(1+r)t+Vn(1+r)nV_0=\sum_{t=1}^n\frac{{\displaystyle D_0(1+g_s)}^t}{{\displaystyle(1+r)}^t}+\frac{V_n}{{(1+r)}^n} and Vn=Dn+1r−gLV_n=\frac{D_{n+1}}{r-g_L}

D1 = €2 × 1.05 = €2.1

D2 = €2 × (1.05)2 = €2.205

D3 = €2 × (1.05)3 = €2.31525

D4 = €2 × (1.05)4 = €2.431

D5 = [€2 × (1.05)4](1.03) = €2.503

V4 = €2.503/(0.1 – 0.03) = €35.77

V 0 =31.56(which is greater than the current price of €20)

考点：Multi-stage Model

计算器繁荣属于步奏如下：

CF0=0, C01=2.1,F01=1,C02=2.205,F02=1,C03=2.31525,F03=1,C04=2.431+35.77 F04=1 ,CPT--NPV, I=10

麻烦画个图，为啥要算D5？

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朱明远 · 2021年04月14日

还有最后在按计算器的时候，最后的C05现金流是不是D5+P5？

朱明远 · 2021年04月14日

还是想请老师具体写下如何按的计算器，我按出来的和这个答案有点差距，最后就是得不到31.56

1 个答案

Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2021年04月16日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


请注意这里计算D5是用来计算V4的，也就是第4年的终值。V4=D5/(r-g)=35.77，在最后计算V0时，D5不参与计算。

按计算器是按到C04=D4+V4=2.431+35.77=38.201

所以CF0=0,C01=2.1,F01=1,C02=2.205,F02=1,C03=2.31525,F03=1,C04=38.201,F04=1, I=5,CPT，NPV

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加油吧，让我们一起遇见更好的自己！

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NO.PZ2018062002000166问题如下 Current priper share $20 Current annuvinper share $2 Annuvingrowth rate for Years 1 – 4: 5% Annuvingrowth rate for ye5 onwar 3% Requirerate of return 10%Baseon the above information, calculate the intrinsic value of the stousing the M mol. The stois most likely: A.unrvalueB.overvalueC.fairly value A is correct.The current priof €20 is less ththe intrinsic value of €31.56;therefore, the stoappears to currently unrvalue Accorng to the two-stage vinscount mol:V0=∑t=1n(1+gs)t(1+r)t+Vn(1+r)nV_0=\sum_{t=1}^n\frac{{\splaystyle 0(1+g_s)}^t}{{\splaystyle(1+r)}^t}+\frac{V_n}{{(1+r)}^n}V0​=∑t=1n​(1+r)t​(1+gs​)t​+(1+r)nVn​​ anVn=+1r−gLV_n=\frac{{n+1}}{r-g_L}Vn​=r−gL​+1​​ = €2 × 1.05 = €2.1 = €2 × (1.05)2 = €2.205 = €2 × (1.05)3 = €2.31525 = €2 × (1.05)4 = €2.431 = [€2 × (1.05)4](1.03) = €2.503V4 = €2.503/(0.1 – 0.03) = €35.77V 0 =31.56(whiis greater ththe current priof €20)考点Multi-stage Mol计算器输入步奏如下CF0=0, C01=2.1,F01=1,C02=2.205,F02=1,C03=2.31525,F03=1,C04=2.431+35.77 F04=1 ,CPT--NPV, I=10 我理解到就截止了，是什么呢

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