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Lily · 2021年03月14日

用以下这种方法计算错在哪里

NO.PZ2019103001000047

问题如下:

Six months later, Hirji reviews Canadian government bonds for a Malaysian institutional client. Prégent and Hirji expect changes in the curvature of the yield curve but are not sure whether curvature will increase or decrease. Hirji first analyzes positions that would profit from an increase in the curvature of the yield curve. The positions must be duration neutral, and the maximum position that the Malaysian client can take in long-term bonds is C$150 million. Hirji notes that interest rates have increased by 100 basis points over the past six months. Selected data for on-the-run Canadian government bonds are shown in Exhibit 2.

Based on Exhibit 2, the amount that Hirji should allocate to the 2-year bond position is closest to:

选项:

A.

C$331 million

B.

C$615 million

C.

C$1,492 million.

解释:

C is correct.

In order to take duration-neutral positions that will profit from an increase in the curvature of the yield curve, Hirji should structure a condor. This condor structure has the following positions: long the 2-year bonds, short the 5-year bonds, short the 10-year bonds, and long the long-term bonds. Hirji’s allocation to the 2-year bond position is calculated as follows:

The C$150 million long-term bonds have a money duration of C$150 × 1,960 = C$294,000

Allocation to 2-year bond = Money duration of long-term bonds/PVBP of 2-year bond

2-year bond position = C$294,000/197 = 1,492.39 or C$1,492 million

第一步,根据duration neutral求出买入的2年期和long-term债券各自权重:4.78+8.89=1.97x+19.6(1-x),得到x=34%, 1-x=66%

第二步,计算出买入长期债券的money duration=1960*150=294000,再除以权重66%,得出买入portfolia的money duration=445454

第三步,(445454*0.34)/197=769,得出买入769m的2年期债券


1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年03月15日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


解题过程对Condor策略的理解有误。


注意,咱们的Condor策略、Butterfly策略,他们说的Duration-neutral都是指Money duration neutral。把握这个就比较容易解题了。


可以参考讲义252页的图形:


Condor策略,这种“秃鹫”,有两个翅膀,第一个翅膀在短期,是Long 2-year与Short 5-year组成的;

第二个翅膀在长期,是Short 10-year与Long 30-year组成的。

我们所说的Condor策略(Money)Duration-neutral,就是指翅膀内部达到money duration-neutral,即:

2-year BPV = 5-year BPV,因为是Long/short策略,所以这一组内部达到Money duration-neutral

10-year BPV = 30-year BPV,因为是Long/short策略,所以这一组内部达到Money duration-neutral

注意,以上就已经是Condor策略了,我们只知道翅膀内部的Money duration是相等的,至于左边翅膀的Money duration与右边翅膀的Money duration是否相等其实无所谓。可以相等,也可以不相等。

一种特殊的情况就是4个头寸的BPV相等,也就是左翅膀BPV等于右翅膀BPV,即:

2-year BPV = 5-year BPV = 10-Year BPV = 30-Year BPV

咱们这道题里面,因为是用Long-term的头寸求2-year的头寸,我们可以知道,4个头寸的BPV一定相对,否则无法求出。


剩下解这道题就非常容易了,已知Long-term的BPV,然后知道他的BPV等于2-year的BPV,我们可以直接求出来需要买多少2-year:


从表格的最后一列我们发现,买1million的Long-term bond,他的BPV是1960,那现在我们Long-term可以买150million,他的总BPV就是:

Long - term BPV = 1960 × 150 = 294,000;


这个BPV =294,000也等于 2-year BPV,从表格的最后一列可知,买1million的2-year bond,获得的BPV=197,那我们需要买多少Million才能获得294000的总BPV:

197 × Market value = 294000

Market value = 1,492.39 million

这样就解出来了2-year的Market value = 1492.39 million


最后再顺便说一下Butterfly策略,Butterfly策略也是Money duration-neutral,他是:

2-year BPV + 30-year BPV = 5-year BPV;也就是Long头寸的BPV加总等于Short头寸的BPV加总。注意他和Condor策略有一些区别。


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