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Ariel · 2021年03月13日

B 为什么不对?

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 


如果名义利率相差越大,也就是EM的利率越高,所以越来越多的热钱会涌入,但是之后他们会退出抛售EM货币,所以导致EM货币贬值,这个理解有问题吗

Ariel · 2021年03月13日

那b不就是正确的吗?

2 个答案

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年03月14日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,首先c选项正确这个我们已经解释了。

b选项说的是nomial yield spread一直增加,这个确实会有贬值的压力的,但c选项明显正确,且b选项解释与我们公式也并不违背。

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丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年03月13日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,你的这个观点是没什么问题的

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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