开发者:上海品职教育科技有限公司 隐私政策详情

应用版本:4.2.11(IOS)|3.2.5(安卓)APP下载

Leviathan · 2021年01月23日

问一道题:NO.PZ201512181000007101 第1小题 [ CFA II ]

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

Based on Exhibit 1, Flusk’s portfolio is expected to experience:

选项:

A.

a minimum daily loss of $1.10 million over the next year.

B.

a loss over one month equal to or exceeding $5.37 million 5% of the time.

C.

an average daily loss of $1.10 million 5% of the time during the next 250 trading days.

解释:

B is correct. VaR is the minimum loss that would be expected a certain percentage of the time over a specified period of time given the assumed market conditions. A 5% VaR is often expressed as its complement—a 95% level of confidence. Therefore, the monthly VaR in Exhibit 1 indicates that $5.37 million is the minimum loss that would be expected to occur over one month 5% of the time. Alternatively, 95% of the time, a loss of more than $5.37 million would not be expected

题目中CONFIDENCE INTERVAL是95%,不应该是2.5%的VaR吗?
2 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年01月24日

@Leviathan 

对,95% confidence level就是95%置信区间的意思。

在数量里,就是双尾的情况,对应正态分布下的分位点±1.96;在组合的VaR里,就是左尾单尾的情况,对应正态分布下的分位点-1.645.

星星_品职助教 · 2021年01月24日

同学你好,

VaR代表的是“损失”,所以是单尾的情况,只考虑左尾。

如果confidence level是95%的话,那么对应的就是5%的左尾情况。这个时候的分位点就是-1.645而不是-1.96.

这种情况和数量里是不一样的,数量里谈到confidence level,考虑的都是双尾。

Leviathan · 2021年01月24日

所以,confidence level 95%,双尾的情况下,对应的是1.96;confidence interval95%,代表的是95%的区间,对吧?