问题如下：
To evaluate the performance of an investment, an analyst has forecasted the return of an assets and market portfolio on different economic conditions and the probability.
Estimation of an asset:
Estimation of market portfolio:
Assuming the risk-free rate is 5%, the risky asset's beta is 1.2, and market portfolio is correctly priced, which investment decision should the analyst make?
选项：
A.The analyst should buy the risky asset because its expected return is higher than its required return in equilibrium.
B.The analyst should short the risky asset because its expected return is less than the expected return on the market portfolio.
C.The analyst should short the risky asset because its expected return can not compensate for its systematic risk totally.
解释：
C is correct.
The estimated return of risky asset is 6%*(10%) + 10%*(45%) + 15%*(45%) = 11.85%.
The expected return of market portfolio is 3%*(10%) + 12%*(45%) + 14%*(0.45) = 12%.
According to the CAPM, the expected return on the risky asset is 5% + 1.2*(12% - 5%) = 13.4%.
Because the analyst's forecast return on the risky asset is less than its expected return derived from CAPM, the asset is overvalued and the analyst should sell it.
老师，我认为这道题应该选a呀，但和答案对比完也没找出自己的逻辑问题，求帮忙看一下，我的逻辑如下：
table1相当于用historical-data算了实际的required-return=11.85%，
table2数据得到Rm，然后用CAPM估算了expected-return=13.4%，
因为11.85%（实际价格）<13.4%(估算的合理定价），所以这个股票目前是被低估的，所以应该买入
