问题如下：
5. Based on Exhibit 1 and McNeil’s two observations, the futures price of soybeans is most consistent with the:
选项：
A.insurance theory.
theory of storage.
hedging pressure hypothesis.
解释：
C is correct.
In Exhibit 1, the spot price of soybeans is less than the futures price. This observation can be explained only by the hedging pressure hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, hedging pressure occurs when both producers and consumers seek to protect themselves from commodity market price volatility by entering into price hedges to stabilize their projected profits and cash flows. If consumers are more interested in hedging than producers are, the futures price will exceed the spot price.
In contrast, the insurance theory predicts that the futures price has to be lower than the current spot price as a form of payment or remuneration to the speculator who takes on the price risk and provides price insurance to the commodity seller. Similarly, the theory of storage also predicts that when a commodity’s convenience yield is greater than its direct storage costs, the futures price will be lower than the spot price.
想确认一下，如下总结是否正确？
1. insurance theory下，都会有backwardation的现象
2.看到题干中出现convinience yield, storage cost, 立马联系FP=SP+Storage Cost - Conv. yield，立刻联系storage theory
3.只要是consumer hedge的热情高于producer, 都是 hedging theory下会发生的事情，并且呈现contango.
