问一道题：NO.PZ2016082406000017

问题如下：

Company ABC was incorporated on January 1, 2004. It has an expected annual default rate of 10%. Assuming a constant quarterly default rate, what is the probability that company ABC will not have defaulted by April 1, 2004?

选项：

2.40%

2.50%

97.40%

97.50%

解释：

ANSWER: C

The probability of survival for one year is $S=(1-d)={(1-d^Q)}^4$. This gives a probability of surviving the first quarter of $(1-d^Q)={(1-0.10)}^\frac14=0.974$.