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little_back · 2020年09月09日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


请问一下老师,B答案为什么不正确?nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time ,也可以导致EM贬值吧?

3 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年09月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


如果把标价写作DM/EM的模式,那么依据B选项的意思,公式右边第一个括号内数值应该增大,所以可以判断出EM在升值,所以B不对。 


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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!


magico · 2020年10月12日

还是没看明白。 名义利率的spread上升,不就是反映了预期通胀spread也上升吗? 那么和C表述的,本质没有差别啊?

源_品职助教 · 2020年10月13日

预期通胀spread 只是名义利率SPREAD的一部分。

而且两者是反向关系。同学你可以再看看讲义上的公式。

源_品职助教 · 2020年09月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


如果把标价写作DM/EM的模式,那么依据B选项的意思,公式右边第一个括号内数值应该增大,所以可以判断出EM在升值,所以B不对。 


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


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