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还是星宇好 · 2020年08月13日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016070201000002

问题如下:

Assume the profit/loss distribution for XYZ is normally distributed with an annual mean of $20 million and a standard deviation of $10 million. The 5% VaR is calculated and interpreted as which of the following statements?

选项:

A.

5% probability of losses of at least $3.50 million.

B.

5% probability of earnings of at least $3.50 million.

C.

95% probability of losses of at least $3.50 million.

D.

95%probability of earnings of at least $3.50 million.

解释:

D is correct. The value at risk calculation at 95% confidence is: -20 million + 1.65 x 10 million = -$3.50 million. Since the expected loss is negative and VaR is an implied negative amount, the interpretation is that XYZ will earn less than +$3.50 million with 5% probability, which is equivalent to XYZ earning at least $3.50 million with 95% probability.

老师,看了你之前回答的另一个同学的答复,还是不敏白A错哪里了,A要怎么说才正确啊,A和D倒地怎么翻译。。是不是我的英文水平有问题。。。

1 个答案

袁园_品职助教 · 2020年08月14日

同学你好!

A错是因为这里20-1.65*10=3.5>0,也就是还没损失,依然在盈利呢,所以A说损失肯定是不对的

你可以说有5%的可能性盈利小于3.5

还是星宇好 · 2020年08月15日

太浪了这个题目,不科学。。