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1h1h1h · 2017年11月21日

问一道题:NO.PZ201511190100000306 第6小题 [ CFA III ]

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问题如下图:

    

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A.

B.

C.

解释:


原文提到Jordan认为价格会回归均值,以及“she reassures the team that this strategy has performed well in the past and that the markets will revert and the fund’s returns will return to normal level”,这里可否理解成根据过去的经验推断未来也会mean reversion,属于representativeness bias

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doglyt · 2017年11月21日

亲爱的你对representative理解略有偏差,认为长期回归均值是典型的gambler’s fallacy ,出现在analyst biases in conducing research的部分,而representative biases指对于过去的经验和信息形成一个模板或模型,在遇到新的news的时候会去不自觉套用模型或模板来得出结论,题干中并没有提到模型或模板,也没有提到有什么新的news

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NO.PZ201511190100000306 问题如下 Whione of the following biases Jorn not monstrate? A.Self-attribution. B.Representativeness. C.Illusion of knowlee. B is correct.Nowhere in the scenario it mention thJorn classifiecertain information into a personalizecategory. Representativeness biis a cognitive biin whipeople tento classify new information baseon past experiences anclassifications. Jorn is not relating the certainty about the future or her cision to hollosing positions bato something she hne or experiencein the past. 这个bias感觉没讲过,也很少考到。这道题哪里体现了呢

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2021-12-21 08:45 2 · 回答

NO.PZ201511190100000306 倒数第二段She reassures the teththis strategy hperformewell in the past anththe markets will revert anthe funs returns will return to normlevels.这句话就表明了jorn根据过去的经验判断未来啊

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