hello,
在看完书上的答案以后我还是很不理解我个题目的解释。请问老师可以解释一下吗？像是这里是应该使用capm model 还是 那个macro model呢？
题目：
Although inflation is currently high at 6 percent per year, the long- term forecast is for an inflation rate of 4 percent per year. Although the yield curve has usually been upward sloping, currently the government yield curve is inverted; at the short-end, yields are 9 percent and at 10-year maturities, yields are 7 percent.
问题：
9 In the current interest rate environment, using a required return estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical equity risk premium defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:
- A bias long-term required return on equity estimates upwards.
- B bias long-term required return on equity estimates downwards.
- C have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.
答案：
A is correct. The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical equity risk premium, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term
rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upwards.
