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Ruthlessbaby · 2020年02月27日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019100901000016

问题如下:

The Prometheo University Scholarship Endowment (the Endowment) was established in 1950 and supports scholarships for students attending Prometheo University. The Endowment’s assets under management are relatively small, and it has an annual spending policy of 6% of the five-year rolling asset value.

Prometheo University recently hired a new chief investment officer (CIO). The CIO directs her small staff of four people to implement an investment policy review. Historically, the endowment has invested 60% of the portfolio in US equities and 40% in US Treasuries. The CIO’s expectation of annual inflation for the next 10 years is 2.5%.

The CIO develops nominal 10-year return assumptions for US Treasuries and US equities, which are presented in Exhibit 1.

Discuss whether the current investment policy is appropriate given the Endowment’s annual spending policy.

选项:

解释:

GUIDELINE ANSWER:

●●The policy is not appropriate.

●●The expected real return of 3.54% is less than the spending policy rate of 6%.

●●Therefore, the current allocation and investment objectives are not sustainable.

The nominal expected return on the current portfolio, according to the nominal return assumptions in Exhibit 1, is 6.04% per year (0.6 × 7.4% + 0.4 × 4.0% = 6.04%). The expected real return is approximately 3.54% (6.04% – 2.5% = 3.54%), which is below the 6% spending rate and the stated objective of a 6% real return. Therefore, this real return is not sufficient to meeting the spending policy, which makes the Endowment’s goals unsustainable. The Endowment will need to change its asset allocation to earn higher returns and/or lower its spending policy rate.

t has an annual spending policy of 6% of the five-year rolling asset value

没有说policy rate 6%是real return 啊,答案为什么计算real return?

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年02月27日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


“没有说policy rate 6%是real return 啊,答案为什么计算real return?”



这里是这样,我们所有的Endowment,都有一个目标是:

Maintain the purchasing power in perpetuity and meanwhile supporting the university's annual spending

也就是Endowment不但要支持大学的项目,还要保证能永续存在、保证购买力。


为了实现这个目标,Spending rate就是Real return。理解如下:

要实现上面这个目标的话,Endowment的Asset base,首先要实现一个Inflation的收益,这样能够保证资产的购买力不变,这样Asset base变为:

Asset ×(1+inflation);

然后,在上面这个基础上,大学每年开支Asset base的6%,为了保证基金永续,我们不能花费基金本金,所以花费的这6%必须是纯收益。

所以花费为:Asset × (1+inflation)× 6%;

发现Asset base已经对inflation进行过调整了,所以这6%一定是Real return,不包含Inflation。

只有每年Endowment的Real return大于等于Spending rate时,才能保证花费的不是本金,不伤害本金额度,保证永续,参考下面讲义:


-------------------------------
就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


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