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沈贇琦 · 2020年01月30日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091901000054 [ CFA III ]

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert.

B.

flatten.

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct.

The current yieldcurve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase(curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionaryconditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likelysteepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recoveryphase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

​这道题目看了解释不太明白,既然contraction,为何曲线不是倒转inverted? 以表示对未来经济不好的预期

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年02月03日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


因为在 contraction 阶段,一国央行会出手干预,会对该国实施紧缩的货币政策。那么短期利率就会大幅下降,该国的收益率曲线便会变得陡峭。此时预测经济就要向好了。

而且题目问的也是W这个同学预测短期收益率曲线要怎么变。所以这里的 contraction 可以理解为靠后了。一旦央行实行扩张货币政策, contraction 就快结束了。


-------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


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