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KeynesYang · 2019年12月11日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


请问下expected inflation 和 risk premium有什么关系,可以具体解释下原理吗?讲义里好像没找到对应知识点。

2 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2019年12月16日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


expected inflation 是风险的一种,所以其数值越大,那么人们要求的风险溢价也就越大,所以 risk premium 也就越大。


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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!


Yang · 2020年02月01日

在 international Fisher relationship 中,

(R_d_nominal-R_f_nominal)=(R_d_real-R_f_real)+(π_d_e-π_f_e)

expected inflation 越大,即(π_d_e-π_f_e)越大,即(R_d_nominal-R_f_nominal)越大,减去无风险利率,即risk premium差值增加

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