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Alice_090 · 2019年03月16日

问一道题:NO.PZ201712110200000106 第6小题

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问题如下图:

    

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:


现在是向上,假设斜率为1,预测forward向下,假设为-1,这样并不能说明forward就是在current下面吧,至少是没有完全在forward下面?

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吴昊_品职助教 · 2019年03月19日

当前B国的收益率曲线是向上倾斜的,预测有一个reversal,故接下来B国的收益率曲线向下倾斜。只要spot curve向下倾斜,forward curve就是在spot curve下方。spot curve和forward curve是两条不相交的曲线,forward rate可以看成是spot rate的平均数。spot curve向下倾斜,说明spot rate在变小,那么平均数自然也是变小的,即forward curve也是向下倾斜的。图2展现的是spot curve和各个时点forward curve。

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