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ciaoyy · 2018年12月11日

问一道题:NO.PZ201709270100000506 第6小题

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问题如下图:

    

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:


这道题中时间序列方程的b0,b1的t检验量都不显著,落在接受域里,为什么不是接受原假设,使得b0=0,b1=0? 最后原方程只剩下0.7239*(lnSalest-4-lnSalest-5)呢?

2 个答案

菲菲_品职助教 · 2018年12月17日

其实在二级更多的都是回归分析,我想了一下,之前说的不存在原假设和备择假设其实有点绝对,如果要等同的话,原假设可以是H0:b1=0,这样的形式,如果得出来的结果是拒绝原假设,就相当于是b1≠0,说明这个自变量是可以用来解释因变量的,但是具体的解释力度还是要结合其他数据来看,比如说R²,还有系数本身。

菲菲_品职助教 · 2018年12月11日

同学你好,这里是回归分析不是假设检验,所以不存在原假设和备择假设,回归分析里面的t统计值只是用来判断这个自变量对于因变量的影响有多大,所以如果题目没有说要剔除某个自变量,就按照原来的模型进行计算。

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NO.PZ201709270100000506 问题如下 6. Baseon the regression output in Exhibit 3 ansales ta in Exhibit 4, the forecastevalue of quarterly sales for Mar2016 for PowereP is closest to: A.$4.193 billion. B.$4.205 billion. C.$4.231 billion. C is correct. The quarterly sales for Mar2016 is calculatefollows:beginarraylln⁡ Salest-ln Salest-1=b0+b1(ln Salest-1-ln Salest-2)+b2(ln Salest−4-ln Salest-5)ln⁡ Salest−ln⁡3.868=0.0092−0.1279(ln⁡3.868−ln⁡3.780)+0.7239(ln⁡3.836−ln⁡3.418)ln⁡ Salest=1.44251Salest=e1.44251=4.231begin{array}{l}\ln{\text{ Sales}}_\text{t}{\text{-ln Sales}}_\text{t-1}{\text{=b}}_\text{0}{\text{+b}}_\text{1}{\text{(ln Sales}}_\text{t-1}{\text{-ln Sales}}_\text{t-2}{\text{)+b}}_\text{2}\text{(ln Sales}_{t-4}^{}{\text{-ln Sales}}_\text{t-5}\text{)}\\\ln{\text{ Sales}}_\text{t}-\ln3.868=0.0092-0.1279(\ln3.868-\ln3.780)+0.7239(\ln3.836-\ln3.418)\\\ln{\text{ Sales}}_\text{t}=1.44251\\{\text{Sales}}_\text{t}=e^{1.44251}=4.231beginarraylln Salest​-ln Salest-1​=b0​+b1​(ln Salest-1​-ln Salest-2​)+b2​(ln Salest−4​-ln Salest-5​)ln Salest​−ln3.868=0.0092−0.1279(ln3.868−ln3.780)+0.7239(ln3.836−ln3.418)ln Salest​=1.44251Salest​=e1.44251=4.231 0.0092−0.1279(ln3.868−ln3.780)+0.7239(ln3.836−ln3.418)得出来不是0.089776吗 然后怎么算ln(Sales t)呢?

2024-07-13 18:34 1 · 回答

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2023-03-18 14:02 1 · 回答

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2023-01-28 23:09 2 · 回答

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2022-10-18 22:31 1 · 回答

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2022-07-10 21:50 1 · 回答