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梦梦 · 2025年06月11日

是不是讲错了

NO.PZ2023101902000034

问题如下:

On January 1, 2006, a pension fund has assets of EUR 100 billion and is fully invested in the equity market. It has EUR 85 billion in liabilities. During 2006, the equity market declined by 15% and yields increases by 1.2%. If the modified duration of the liabilities is 12.5, what is the pension fund’s surplus on December 31, 2006?

选项:

A.EUR 15.00 billion

B.EUR 12.93 billion

C.EUR 12.75 billion

D.EUR 12.57 billion

解释:

The surplus at the beginning of the year was 100 – 85 = 15 billion EUR. During the year, the equity portfolio declines 15%, or 15 billion EUR, to 85 billion EUR. Due to the increase in yields, the dollar value of the liabilities decrease by 12.5 × 1.2% × 85 billion EUR, or 12.75. Thus at the end of the year, the assets are worth (100-15)=85billion EUR and the liabilities (85 - 12.75) = 72.25 billion. The surplus is the 12.75, a decrease of 2.25 billion EUR.

老师,这里是不是讲错了?负号应该跟着duration吧?而不是利率是-1.2%,因为利率明明是increase

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2025年06月11日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


没有写错。


不管是资产还是负债,都可以直接看做债券类似的东西。

△表示的是某个东西的变化金额。

△L表示的是负债的变化金额,负债可以看做是债券,所以△L = -久期 * 负债的价值 * 利率变动值 = -12.5 * 85 * 1.2% = -12.75.


所以△L最后的数字就是 -12.75,表示利率上涨的情况下,负债金额下降了12.75.


最后△S = △A - △L = 100*(-15%) - (-12.75) = -15 + 12.75 = -2.25(可以看到后面这个负债变动的部分,因为负债是下降的,所以的确是减去一个负数,负负得正了) 这表明surplus最终下降了2.25,那么最终的surplus = 15 - 2.25 = 12.75 million

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