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Carolyne · 2025年06月11日

contraction

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NO.PZ202001210200000108

问题如下:

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert

B.

flatten

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct. The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

表格说Y国现在处于contraction,obersavation 又说现在是slowdown阶段。为什么表述的这么矛盾?

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2025年06月11日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:



这题说的是依据Based on Observation 3做出结论

Observation 3说的是Y过当前是SLOWDOWN,但是收益率曲线要开始反映contractionary conditions了。

题目其实问的是contractionary而非SLOWDOWN。(Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to,当前SLOWDOWN,接下来会怎么样)

教材有说到,contraction收益率曲线的特点就是STEEP。

slowdown和contraction两个阶段本身就是前后交接的,而且经济和收益率曲线也可以又快又慢,收益率曲线属于金融市场,领先与实体经济一些先进入contraction是有可能的。所以这里并不算矛盾哦。

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