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James · 2025年03月30日

老师能解释一下C选项吗?

NO.PZ2023040402000046

问题如下:

Manika and Barkada reach an agreement in which Manika will acquire 100% of Barkada for $300 million in cash and 10 million Manika common shares. Prior to the acquisition, Manika had 162 million outstanding shares.

To estimate Manika's new cost of equity after the acquisition, Pascua considers using the DDM, the global CAPM, or the Grinold–Kroner model. She assesses which model is the most appropriate to use on the basis that Manika has been paying consistent but very low dividends. Both Manika and Barkada operate in a developing country where the stock market is not a large portion of the economy.

Which model is most appropriate for estimating Manika’s new cost of equity?

选项:

A.

DDM

B.

Global CAPM

C.

Grinold–Kroner model

解释:

A is correct because the DDM only requires that the company’s shares be publicly traded and that the company pays dividends that are stable and predictable. Those conditions are met by Manika. First, it is a public company as implied by the phrase based on the unaffected share price prior to the agreement in the vignette. Second, it pays consistent dividends. Very low dividends will simply translate to a low cost of equity based on the DDM.

B is incorrect because in the global CAPM (GCAPM), where a global market index is the single factor, there are no assumed significant risk differences across countries. The issue is that a likely result is a low, or even negative, slope coefficient because of the correlation between emerging and developed market returns being quite low in general.

If the company’s operations are global, but limited to developed countries, the GCAPM and ICAPM are reasonable methods to apply. If however, the company’s operations extend to developing countries, the methodology is less clear. Both Manika and Barkada operate in a developing country where the stock market is not a large portion of the economy. Hence, the Global CAMP is not appropriate.

C is incorrect because the Grinold-Kroner model is not appropriate for estimating the ERP in a developing country where the stock market is not a sufficiently large portion of the economy.

ERP estimates derived from macroeconomic models such as the Grinold–Kroner model, rely on a number of forecasted economic variables such as inflation and expected growth in real earnings per share. Using relationships between macroeconomic and financial variables in equity valuation models, analysts can develop ERP estimates. These models might be more reliable when public equities represent a relatively large share of the economy, as in many developed markets.

答案解析没看懂,谢谢

1 个答案

Kiko_品职助教 · 2025年04月01日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


Grinold–Kroner 模型用于计算股票、股票指数或整个市场的预期回报率,其中涉及预期股息、当前股价、预期通胀率、实际盈利增长率、流通股数变化、市盈率变化等变量 ,通过这些宏观经济和财务变量来估算股权风险溢价(ERP) 。公式参照基础班讲义101页。


在 Manika 和 Barkada 所在的发展中国家,股票市场在经济中占比不大,使用 Grinold–Kroner 模型存在问题:

  • 变量预测难:该模型依赖如通胀率、实际每股收益预期增长等多个宏观经济变量预测值 。在股票市场占比小的发展中国家,经济数据可能不完善、经济结构不稳定,这些宏观经济变量难以准确预测 ,基于此算出的股权风险溢价可靠性低。
  • 模型适用性差:此模型在公开股票在经济中占比较大的发达市场,因经济数据完备、市场机制成熟,能较好反映市场与宏观经济联系 。但在股票市场规模小的发展中国家,宏观经济与股票市场关系复杂且不紧密,模型难以准确适用 。


所以在这种情况下,Grinold–Kroner 模型不适合估算 Manika 的新权益成本。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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