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皓月 · 2025年03月19日

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NO.PZ202112010200000103

问题如下:

Assume the manager is able to extend her mandate by adding derivatives strategies to the three portfolio alternatives.

The best way to position her portfolio to benefit from a bear flattening scenario is to combine a:

选项:

A.

2-year receive-fixed Australian dollar (AUD) swap with the same money duration as the bullet portfolio.

B.

2-year pay-fixed AUD swap with twice the money duration as the 2-year government bond in the barbell portfolio.

C.

9-year receive-fixed AUD swap with twice the money duration as the 9-year government bond position in the equally weighted portfolio.

解释:

B is correct. A bear flattening scenario is a decrease in the yield spread between long- and short-term maturities driven by higher short-term rates. The manager must therefore position her portfolio to benefit from rising short-term yields.

Under A, the receive-fixed 2-year swap is a synthetic long position, increasing portfolio duration that will result in an MTM loss under bear flattening. The receive-fixed swap in answer C will increase duration in long-term maturities.
In the case of B, the pay-fixed swap with twice the money duration of the barbell will more than offset the existing long position, resulting in net short 2-year and long 9-year bond positions in the overall portfolio and a gain under bear flattening.

老师能不能用中文讲一讲

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2025年03月19日

这道题的题目说是:在原有组合的基础上,然后额外增加衍生品的头寸,问选项里面哪个策略会在bear flattening的情景下受益。


题干这句:

extend her mandate by adding derivatives strategies to the three portfolio alternatives.

就是在3个债券组合的基础上,额外再adding衍生品头寸。


原有3个债券组合的信息在大题干条件里:




选项A:

2-year receive-fixed Australian dollar (AUD) swap with the same money duration as the bullet portfolio.

原组合是4.5-year的bullet portfolio,现在要增加一个2-year receive swap,且swap的money duration和原bullet组合一样。


2-year receive swap,这是收到2-year的fixed rate,收到利息相当于是投资债券,于是swap头寸可以看成Long 2-year bond,这会增加2-year的money duration。

所以新的头寸是:2-year的头寸 + bullet的4.5-year头寸


bear flattening的利率改变:bear说明利率曲线整体上移,flattening说明短期利率上升更多,导致曲线更加平坦。

所以,盈利的策略应该是:尽可能降低短期的duration,避免短期利率上升带来的亏损。

选项A是直接增加了2-year短期的头寸,这其实会加大亏损。


选项B:

2-year pay-fixed AUD swap with twice the money duration as the 2-year government bond in the barbell portfolio.

原组合是2-year与9-year的barbell,现在新增了一个2-year pay-fixed swap,且swap里面2-year的money duration是原barbell里面2-year的2倍。


2-year pay-fixed swap,这是支付2年期的fixed rate,支付利率相当于是发行了债券,属于short头寸,所以获得short 2-year头寸,且这个short的money duration是原组合2-year头寸的2倍。


这说明,选项B的衍生品short 2-year头寸不但把原组合2-year的头寸给抵消了,还额外造成了short 2-year的头寸。

所以新的头寸是:short 2-year + 原有barbell里面剩余的9-year头寸。

在bear flattening时,短期利率上升,short 2-year会盈利。本题选B。


选项C:

9-year receive-fixed AUD swap with twice the money duration as the 9-year government bond position in the equally weighted portfolio.


原组合是集中在2-year, 4.5-year, 9-year的laddered portfolio。

现在新增一个9-year receive fixed swap。这个swap收到9年期的fixed-rate,收到利率相当于是投资债券,所以swap相当于是long 9-year债券头寸。

且这个9-year的money duration是原laddered portfolio里9-year的2倍。

新的头寸:原laddered + 2倍的9-year


衍生品进一步加大了组合的duration,在曲线整体上移bear的背景下,会亏损.


以上解析就是答案表达的意思。

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