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mino酱是个小破货 · 2025年03月02日

关于B项,effective duration和empirical duration区别?谢谢

NO.PZ2021120102000010

问题如下:

Which of the following statements best describes empirical duration?

选项:

A.

A common way to calculate a bond’s empirical duration is to run a regression of its price returns on changes in a benchmark interest rate.

B.

A bond’s empirical duration tends to be larger than its effective duration.

C.

The price sensitivity of high-yield bonds to interest rate changes is typically higher than that of investment-grade bonds

解释:

A is correct. A bond’s empirical duration is often estimated by running a regression of its price returns on changes in a benchmark interest rate.

empirical duration是观察到的债券价格对基准利率变动的敏感程度,effecive duration是理论上计算的债券价格对基准利率变动的敏感程度。empirical duration小于effective duration,尤其是HYB,二者的差异更大,这是一个实证检验观察到的一个现象。具体原因如下:

由于yc=yb+spread且yb与credit spread有负相关关系(理论基础是△yb>0表明经济好,此时,投资者对市场未来看好,对债券credit premium要求较低,因此credit spread变小),所以△yb>0,credit spread下降,也就是△spread<0,进而△yc<△yb,抵消作用就是credit spread与基准利率的负相关导致的。

假设△yb=1%,那么根据上面的分析,△yc<1%,△yc引起的△%P<△yb引起的△%P,前者是empirical duration,后者是effective duration,所以,empirical duration 通常要比 effective duration小。

相比于IG,因为HYB的credit spread与yb负相关关系更大,所以相对于IG,HYB的empirical duration比effective duration小的更多。


我的思路也是如此,但是发亮老师的讲解,effective duartion和emprical duration都是基于benchmark计算的,是类似概念,但不是analytical duration(假设yb和spread独立变化),所以想问下,那么B错在哪?谢谢


1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2025年03月03日

选项B的问题是他刚好说反了:

A bond’s empirical duration tends to be larger than its effective duration.

所有债券的empirical duration都小于其effective duration,HY bond这种现象更明显。


提问里说的理解思路没什么问题,是正确的理解。


根据上面的理解,同一个债券,他的empirical duration < effective duration。这也是正确的结论。

因为benchmark rate上升1%,对于effective duration不考虑spread的反向改变,1%的基准利率改变全部传导到债券的价格改变上,假设价格改变幅度是4%,则effective duration=4%/1%=4


对于empirial duration,因为有benchmark rate和credit spread的反向改变,benchmark rate上升1%,credit spread可能下降0.7%,最终净效果是只有0.3%的利率上升传导到了债券价格改变上,实际债券价格改变幅度更小,假设债券的价格只改变了1.5%。

但注意,在回归算empirical duration的时候,是拿债券价格实际改变幅度1.5%和benchmark rate改变1%做回归,相当于是benchmark rate上升1%,债券价格只改变了1.5%,其empirical duration = 1.5%/1% = 1.5

所以empirical duration也是基于benchmark rate的duration。


因为这种反向抵消,在empirical duration里,债券的实际价格改变幅度更小。即,benchmark rate利率改变1单位,对应更小的债券价格波动,于是empirical duration更小。


analytical duration是债券的理论duration。包含基于债券YTM的modified/macaulay duration(yield duration statistics),也包含基于benchmark rate的effective duration(curve duration)。这是都是基于公式算的理论值。


empirical duration是债券的实际价回归duration,回归的自变量是benchmark rate,衡量benchmark rate变动1单位,债券价格的实际改变幅度。这里是基于benchmark rate算的回归,只不过在考虑债券价格改变时,考虑到了benchmark rate与spread的反向抵消。

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