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Pythias · 2024年10月18日

请问关于第二项的理解

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2018103102000046

问题如下：

Jacques is the portfolio manager of AB pension and she considers adding PZ Inc. to her portfolio. Previously, she believed the company would have extraordinary growth for 4 years and normal growth thereafter. After carefully considering the characteristics of the company and its competitors, she is wondering what the consequences would be if the duration of the first stage was assumed to be 8 years instead of 4, with all the other assumptions/estimates remaining the same. Which of the following statement is true?

Statement 1: If the H model is used, the total value estimated would increase.

Statement 2: By using DDM, the proportion of the total value of the stock represented by the second stage would not change.

选项：

A.

Statement 1.

B.

Statement 2.

C.

Both of it.

解释：

A is correct.

考点：DDM& H-model

解析：A是正确的。Statement 2错在如果较高的增长率将持续更长的时间，那么股票的价值就会上升。

我的理解是在永续经营的假设下，第一阶段只是增加了四年，第二阶段仍然是经对的大头，姥第二阶段的占比变化是否可以忽略不计，那么第二项也可以是正确的？

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年10月18日

同学你好，不能忽略不计的哦

我们可以用H model的图形来理解这个statement2

请看以下两个图形，首先图形面积代表的就是公司的value

如果增长8年（也就是第2个图）得到的图形面积肯定是大于增长4年（也就是第1个图）得到的面积

所以高速增长时间越长，公司价值越高

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