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GriffinLaw · 2024年10月07日

根据解析,并不能表达出C就是正确答案

NO.PZ2023091601000002

问题如下:

An analyst develops the following probability distribution about the state of the economy and the market.

Which of the following statements about this probability distribution is least likely accurate?

选项:

A.

The probability of a normal market is 0.30

B.

The probability of having a good economy and a bear market is 0.12

C.

Given that the economy is good, the chance of a poor economy and a bull market is 0.15

D.

Given that the economy is poor, the combined probability of a normal or a bull market is 0.50

解释:

Given that the economy is good, the probability of a poor economy and a bull market is zero. The other statements are true. The P(normal market) = (0.60 × 0.30) + (0.40 × 0.30) = 0.30. P(good economy and bear market) = 0.60 × 0.20 = 0.12. Given that the economy is poor, the probability of a normal or bull market = 0.30 + 0.20 = 0.50.

请麻烦展示一下每个具体的选项计算方式

1 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa27 · 2024年10月08日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


根据解析,并不能表达出C就是正确答案

根据解析,C就是正确答案啊,题目让我们选个错误选项,C是错的,所以选C。


A选项说normal market的概率是0.3, 正确的结果应该是(60%*30%+40%*30%)=30%, A正确

B说good economy and a bear market 的概率是0.12,60%*20%=0.12, B正确

C解析算过了,我就不算了

D解析也算过了,是对的,我也就不算了。

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