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wyrw · 2024年09月17日

解法为何思路不对

NO.PZ2023040301000194

问题如下:

An analyst gathers the following information about a company (in $ millions):

Forecast assumptions for Year 2:

net sales growth: 10%

(depreciation expense / net PP&E beginning of year) ratio to remain constant

maintenance capital expenditures equal depreciation expense

growth capital expenditure: 5% of net sales

The forecast total capital expenditure for Year 2 is closest to:

选项:

A.

$55 million

B.

$86 million

C.

$95 million

解释:

C is Correct because capital expenditures can be broken down into maintenance capital expenditures necessary to sustain the current business and growth capital expenditures needed to expand the business. Maintenance capital expenditure forecasts are often based on historical depreciation and amortization expenses, usually with a small adjustment upward to account for inflation in capital goods. Growth capital expenditure forecasts are more discretionary and are tied to management's expansion plans and revenue growth. Depreciation and amortization forecasts are based on net PP&E and intangibles on the balance sheet (which increase due to capital expenditures) and their useful lives as assumed by management’s accounting policies, which can be approximated by the ratio of gross fixed assets to depreciation and amortization expenses. Information may also be found in the notes to the financial statements.

Year 1:

(Depreciation expense/net PP&E beginning of year) = 36/480 = 0.075

Year 2:

net sales = 1,000×(1+10%) = 1,100

growth capital expenditure = 5%×1,100 = 55

maintenance capital expenditure = depreciation expense = 530×0.075= 39.75

total capital expenditure = growth capital expenditure + maintenance capital expenditure = 55 + 39.75 = 94.75 95.

如果是使用PP&E 期末=PP&E 期初+当期capital expense-折旧,计算出Year1 的capital expense 86,Year 2较Year 1的增量使用条件中的growth capital expense 55,两者相加136

这样的解题思路问题出错在哪

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年09月17日

同学你好,如果按照你的思路,那题目中两个关于CAPEX的条件,你就只用了一个growth CAPEX 的条件(最下面的题目截图)

题目已经说了maintenance CAPEX和折旧一样,并没有说和第一年的CAPEX一样,你即便算出了第一年的CAPEX是86,也不能说明第二年的了maintenance CAPEX就也是86啊

且第一年的86的CAPEX里面也包含了两部分,一部分是maintenance CAPEX,一部分是growth CAPEX,你又怎么能默认这86全部都是了maintenance CAPEX而没有growth CAPEX 呢?

所以我们只要严格按照题目条件给的方式分别计算了maintenance CAPEX和growth CAPEX 就可以计算得到第二年的CAPEX的总值了哦

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