NO.PZ202206070100000501
问题如下：
Regarding the approaches to economic forecasting, the statement by which analyst is most accurate?选项：
A.Poulsen B.Tuoc C.Spenser解释：
Solution
C is correct. Spenser’s statement is most accurate. In the economic indicators approach, for example, the composite of leading economic indicators is based on an analysis of its forecasting usefulness in past cycles. The indicators are intuitive, simple to construct, require only a limited number of variables, and third-party versions are also available.
A is incorrect. Contrary to Poulson’s statement, the checklist approach is highly subjective and time-consuming.
B is incorrect. Contrary to Tuoc’s statement, the relationships between variables are likely to change. In practice, model-based forecasts rarely forecast recessions well, although they have a better record of anticipating upturns.
C是正确的。Spenser的说法最准确。例如，在经济指标方法中，composite of leading economic indicators是根据对其在过去周期中预测有用性的分析。该指标直观，易于构建，只需要有限的变量，并且容易从第三方获取数据。
A是不正确的。与Poulson的说法相反，checklist方法是一种高度主观的方法，而且很耗时。
B是不正确的。与Tuoc的说法相反，变量之间的关系很可能会改变。在实践中，基于模型的预测尽管在预测经济好转方面有不错的记录，但是它们却很少能准确预测衰退。
请问econometric modeling是robust的么？
