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karweillas · 2024年08月08日

如下

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NO.PZ202304040200002301

问题如下:

In the current interest rate environment, using a required return on equity estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical ERP defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:

选项:

A.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates upward.

B.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates downward.

C.

have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.

解释:

A is correct. The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical ERP, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward-sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upward.

historical默认就是短期利率<长期利率吗?还是说题目里面哪个地方提到了?

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王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年08月08日

同学你好,这是默认条件哦

一般来说,经济如果处在正常的发展阶段中,都是短期利率低于长期利率的——因为正常投资期限越长要求越高的收益率才对啊,只有在衰退环境下利率曲线才会发生倒转reverse

其实本题也给提示了,请看下面题目截图——题目说了这种长期利率小于短期的状态是inverse的,那也就是在告诉我们历史上正常时候,短期利率是小于长期的

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