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dlwdyf · 2024年08月01日

Short CHF/USD forward contract是否等价于Long USD/CHF forward contract

NO.PZ2022123002000020

问题如下:

Gehlot asks Chlapowski to provide input regarding foreign exchange management. Chlapowski presents spot and forward rates in Exhibit 3. She also states:

Statement 1: A positive roll yield could be created in Dong’s portfolio by selling a USD/EUR forward contract.

Statement 2: A positive roll yield could be created in Dong’s portfolio by selling a CHF/USD forward contract.

Exhibit 3 Spot and Forward Rates

Identify which of Chlapowski’s statements is most likely to be correct based on the information provided in Exhibit 3. Calculate the forward premium or discount for each statement.

选项:

解释:

Correct Answer:

Statement 1 is correct.

Dong’s portfolio is 45% invested in German assets. USD/EUR is selling at a forward premium of 5.3% compared to the current spot rate. Dong can sell the base currency at a higher price than the current spot rate, creating a positive roll yield.

Forward premium = (1.2/1.14) – 1 = 5.3%

Statement 2 is incorrect.

CHF/USD is not in direct quote format, so the quote must be converted into a direct quote to calculate forward premium or discount.

USD/CHF spot rate = 0.99

USD/CHF six-month forward rate = 0.952

USD/CHF is trading at a discount of 3.83% and selling CHF would create a negative roll yield for Dong’s portfolio.

Forward discount = (0.952/0.99) – 1 = 3.83%

视频讲解中,老师直接把Short CHF/USD的汇率形式改成了USD/CHF,以符合投资人持有的是CHF资产。

但Short CHF/USD forward contract是在未来按照一定的汇率卖出USD(同时买入CHF),那应该等价于Long USD/CHF forward contract,在未来按照一定的汇率买入CHF(同时卖出USD)。

如果上面所说的对的,那题目中的人持有的是CHF资产,但是hedge的时候交易错方向了。

转换成UDS/CHF的格式,就是Long CHF forward against USD,long forward的roll yield是(S0-F)/S0=(1/1.01-1/1.05)/(1/1.01)=3.81%,结果变成了收益。

而且即便不通过上面的转换,直接看题干,Spot rate1.01CHF/USD,Forward1.05CHF/USD,同时还是short (CHF/USD),怎么看都是收益。

1 个答案

pzqa27 · 2024年08月02日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


Short CHF/USD forward contract是否等价于Long USD/CHF forward contract

是的,这俩是等价的。


视频讲解中,老师直接把Short CHF/USD的汇率形式改成了USD/CHF,以符合投资人持有的是CHF资产。

但Short CHF/USD forward contract是在未来按照一定的汇率卖出USD(同时买入CHF),那应该等价于Long USD/CHF forward contract,在未来按照一定的汇率买入CHF(同时卖出USD)。

这里CHF作为外币,是要被对冲的,所以我们应该是在未来要卖出CHF才对,而不应该是按约定的汇率买入CHF。


如果上面所说的对的,那题目中的人持有的是CHF资产,但是hedge的时候交易错方向了。转换成UDS/CHF的格式,就是Long CHF forward against USD,long forward的roll yield是(S0-F)/S0=(1/1.01-1/1.05)/(1/1.01)=3.81%,结果变成了收益。

题目中人持有的是CHF,所以在未来要卖出CHF,应该是short USD/CHF的合约才对,不应该是Long CHF forward against USD。


而且即便不通过上面的转换,直接看题干,Spot rate1.01CHF/USD,Forward1.05CHF/USD,同时还是short (CHF/USD),怎么看都是收益。

这个题主要想表达的是策略2的冲策略做错了,应该是short USD/CHF, 这样算的roll yield 是负的。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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