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Shuangshuang · 2024年07月31日

各项具体公式讲一下呗

NO.PZ2024042601000050

问题如下:

An analyst at a financial institution has been asked to assess the quality of estimating credit VaR (CVaR) of a homogenous portfolio of firms (credits) using the single-factor model, under which default correlation varies with the firm’s beta to the market factor. The analyst examines the portfolio under the following assumptions:

There are 1,000 firms (credits) in the portfolio.

Each firm represents 0.1% of the portfolio.

There is no idiosyncratic risk.

Loss given default is the same for each firm in the portfolio.

Based on the information provided, which of the following observations, if made by the analyst, would be correct regarding the application of the single-factor model and its parameters?

选项:

A.

When the firm’s beta to the market factor is equal to 1, the loss rate of the credits is either 0% or 100%

B.

The distance to default of a firm will typically be low if the correlation to the market factor is low, for a given probability of default

C.

When the asset return correlation to the market factor is equal to zero, the loss rate is typically higher than the probability of default of a firm in the portfolio

D.

The asset return correlation to the market factor is measured by the square root of beta

解释:

A is correct. Under perfect correlation (beta equal to 1), there are two possibilities: either all the credits default (loss rate equals to 100%), or none of the credits defaults (loss rate equals to 0%).

B is incorrect. The reading explains that correlation to the market factor determines how spread out the defaults are over the range of the market factor such that, if the correlation to the market factor is low (high), then for any probability of default, the number of defaults will be low (high) and the distance to default of credit assets will typically be high (low).

C is incorrect. Given no idiosyncratic risk and a default correlation of zero, the loss rate is likely very close to the probability of default.

D is incorrect. The pairwise asset return correlation is measured by the square of beta.

各项具体公式讲一下呗

1 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa27 · 2024年08月01日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


选项 A:

当公司的贝塔等于1时,信用的损失率要么是0%要么是100%

在单因子模型中,假设所有公司与市场因子有完全相关性(即β=1)。这意味着所有公司的资产回报率完全同步。因此,在市场表现极端情况(即非常好或非常差)的情况下:

  • 如果市场表现非常好,那么所有公司的资产回报率都很好,因此没有公司违约,损失率为0%。
  • 如果市场表现非常差,那么所有公司的资产回报率都很差,因此所有公司都违约,损失率为100%。

这个结论是基于单因子模型中假设的完全相关性,所以选项A是正确的。

选项 B:

对于给定的违约概率,如果与市场因子的相关性低,则公司的违约距离通常较低

“违约距离”是指从当前资产水平到违约点的标准差数目。对于单因子模型,如果资产回报与市场因子的相关性低(即β低),则资产回报率较少受到市场变化的影响,因此违约率更分散。然而,选项B的描述有些混乱,这里的描述显然与模型和相关性之间的关系不一致。实际上,违约距离较高,这与选项的描述相反。因此,B是错误的。

选项 C:

当资产回报与市场因子的相关性等于零时,损失率通常高于公司在投资组合中的违约概率

在单因子模型中,如果资产回报与市场因子的相关性为零(即β=0),意味着各个公司之间的违约是完全独立的。在没有独特风险的情况下,违约率将接近公司在投资组合中的平均违约概率。因此,损失率应该接近公司的违约概率,而不是通常高于违约概率。因此,C是错误的。

选项 D:

资产回报与市场因子的相关性通过贝塔的平方根来衡量

资产回报的相关性是通过贝塔的平方来衡量的。这是因为贝塔衡量的是资产对市场因子变化的敏感性,而相关性则是资产回报率与市场因子回报率的线性关系。因此,贝塔的平方才是正确的度量方式,而不是平方根。因此,D是错误的。

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