NO.PZ2022122601000015
问题如下：
Hadpret predicts an economic contraction and forecasts lower inflation and possibly deflation over the next 12 months. In response to the projected cyclical decline in the Eastland economy and in private sector borrowing over the next year, Hadpret expects a change in the monetary and fiscal policy mix. He forecasts that the Eastland central bank will ease monetary policy. On the fiscal side, Hadpret expects the Eastland government to enact a substantial tax cut. As a result, Hadpret forecasts large government deficits that will be financed by the issuance of long-term government securities.
Discuss the relationship between the shape of the yield curve and the monetary and fiscal policy mix projected by Hadpret.
解释：
Hadpret expects that, in response to a forecasted contraction in the Eastland economy, the central bank will ease monetary policy and the government will enact an expansionary fiscal policy. This policy mix has an impact on the shape of the yield curve.
The impact of changes in monetary policy on the yield curve are fairly clear, because changes in the yield curve’s slope—its flattening or steepening—are largely determined by the expected movement in short rates. This movement, in turn, is determined by the expected path of monetary policy and the state of the economy. With the central bank easing and the economy contracting, policy rates will be declining and will be expected to decline further as the central bank aims to counteract downward momentum in the economy. Bond yields also decline but by a lesser amount, so the yield curve steepens. The yield curve will typically continue to steepen during the contraction phase as the central bank continues to ease, reaching its steepest point just before the initial recovery phase.
Fiscal policy may affect the shape of the yield curve through the relative supply of bonds at various maturities that the government issues to fund deficits. Unlike the impact of monetary policy, the impact of changes in the supply of securities on the yield curve is unclear. The evidence seems to suggest that sufficiently large purchases/sales at different maturities will have only a temporary impact on yields. As a result, the large government budget deficits forecasted by Hadpret are unlikely to have much of a lasting impact on the yield curve, especially given that private sector borrowing will be falling during the contraction, somewhat offsetting the increase in the supply of government securities.
中文解析：
哈普雷特预计，为了应对东部地区经济的预期收缩，央行将放松货币政策，政府将制定扩张性财政政策。这种政策组合对收益率曲线的形状有影响。
货币政策变化对收益率曲线的影响相当明显，因为收益率曲线斜率的变化——趋平或趋陡——很大程度上取决于短期利率的预期变动。反过来，这种走势是由货币政策的预期路径和经济状况决定的。随着央行的宽松政策和经济的收缩，政策利率将会下降，而且预计会进一步下降，因为央行的目标是抵消经济的下行势头。债券收益率也会下降，但下降幅度较小，因此收益率曲线变陡。在收缩阶段，随着央行继续放松货币政策，收益率曲线通常会继续变陡，在最初的复苏阶段之前达到最陡的点。
财政政策可以通过政府为填补赤字而发行的不同期限债券的相对供应量来影响收益率曲线的形状。与货币政策的影响不同，证券供应变化对收益率曲线的影响尚不清楚。证据似乎表明，不同期限的足够大的购买/出售只会对收益率产生暂时的影响。因此，哈普雷特预测的巨额政府预算赤字不太可能对收益率曲线产生太大的持久影响，特别是考虑到私营部门的借款将在收缩期间下降，这在一定程度上抵消了政府证券供应的增加。
我是这样考虑的：
The long term rate is moving downward affected by the low inflation expectation; at the same time, because of the loose fiscal policy of reducing tax, it gives a upward potential for the long term rate which offset the downward movement from inflation expectation.
Combined this consideration on fiscal policy, the curve will be steepen in short run and flatten in long run.
