为什么t=183？

* 问题详情，请查看题干

NO.PZ201709270100000401

问题如下：

1.Based on Exhibit 1, the predicted WTI oil price for October 2015 using the linear trend model is closest to:

选项：

$29.15.

$74.77.

$103.10.

解释：

C is correct. The predicted value for period t from a linear trend is calculated as

${\overset\wedge y}_t={\overset\wedge b}_0+{\overset\wedge b}_1(t$

October 2015 is the second month out of sample, or t = 183. So, the predicted value for October 2015 is calculated as

${\overset\wedge y}_t$ = 28.3278 + 0.4086(183) = $103.10.

Therefore, the predicted WTI oil price for October 2015 based on the linear trend model is $103.10.

从哪里可以得出t=183这个结论

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1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2024年06月20日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：

题干给出2015.8为第181个月，所以本题要计算的October 2015就是第183个月。

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努力的时光都是限量版，加油！

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NO.PZ201709270100000401问题如下 1.Baseon Exhibit 1, the precteWTI oil prifor October 2015 using the linetrenmol is closest to: $29.15. $74.77. C.$103.10. C is correct. The prectevalue for periot from a linetrenis calculateasy∧t=b∧0+b∧1(t{\overset\wee y}_t={\overset\wee b}_0+{\overset\wee b}_1(ty∧t=b∧0+b∧1(tOctober 2015 is the seconmonth out of sample, or t = 183. So, the prectevalue for October 2015 is calculateasy∧t{\overset\wee y}_ty∧t = 28.3278 + 0.4086(183) = $103.10.Therefore, the precteWTI oil prifor October 2015 baseon the linetrenmol is $103.10. 表2貌似有自相关的迹象，是否应该是用AR2计算？

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