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Jwang · 2024年06月06日

题目说yield curve flatten substantially.

NO.PZ2018091901000051

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical.

Based on Exhibit 1, what capital market effect is Country Z most likely to experience in the short-term?

选项:

A.

Cyclical assets attract investors.

B.

Monetary policy becomes restrictive.

C.

The yield curve steepens substantially.

解释:

B is correct.

Wakuluk’s model predicts that Country Z’s business cycle is currently in the late upswing phase. In the late upswing phase, interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes more restrictive. Cyclical assets may underperform, whereas the yield curve is expected to continue to flatten.

解析:

依据Wakuluk的模型预测,Z国的商业周期目前处于后期上升阶段。在上升阶段的后期,利率通常会随着货币政策的收紧而上升。所以B选项正确

周期性资产可能表现不佳,而收益率曲线预计将继续趋平。所以AC的说法都有误。

题目说yield curve flatten substantially. 如果这里说yield curve continues to flatten,应该就对了,是不是没有任何一个phase, yield curve 是substantially flattened 的呢?见到这个表达应该就是不正确的?yield curve change substantially的应该只有contraction中的steepen substantially?

Jwang · 2024年06月06日

不好意思打错了,题目说yield curve steepen substantially.

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年06月07日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


yield curve continues to flatten发生在经济扩张的晚期阶段。这是原版书上的习惯性表述。

如果题目说flatten substantially,个人认为也是OK的,该阶段主要强调的是flatten,至于用什么副词不太重要,CFA考试也不会在副词这里为难考生。C选项主要错在,steepen ,这就把收益率曲线的形状完全说错了。


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