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梦梦 · 2024年05月27日

正态分布表左侧都是从0开始,怎么查负值?

NO.PZ2020010303000012

问题如下:

The monthly return on a hedge fund portfolio with USD 1 billion in assets is N(.02, .0003). What is the distribution of the gain in a month?

a. The fund has access to a USD 10 million line of credit that does not count as part of its portfolio. What is the chance that the firm’s loss in a month exceeds this line of credit?

b. What would the line of credit need to be to ensure that the firm’s loss was less than the line of credit in 99.9% of months (or equivalently, larger than the LOC in 0.1% of months)?

解释:

a. The monthly return is 2%, and the monthly standard deviation is 1.73%. In USD, the monthly change in portfolio value has a mean of 2% * USD 1 billion = USD 20 million and a standard deviation of 1.73% * USD 1 billion = USD 17.3 million. The probability that the portfolio loses more than USD 10 million is than (working in millions)

Pr(V<10)=Pr(V2017.3<102017.3)=Pr(Z<1.73)Pr(V<-10)=Pr(\frac{V-20}{17.3}<\frac{-10-20}{17.3})=Pr(Z<-1.73)

Using the normal table, Pr(Z<-1.73)=4.18%

b. Here we work in the other direction. First, we find the quantile where Pr(Z < z) = 99.9%, which gives z = -3.09. This is then scaled to the distribution of the change in the value of the portfolio by multiply-ing by the standard deviation and adding the mean, 17.3 * -3.09 + 20 = -33.46. The fund would need a line of credit of USD 33.46 million to have a 99.9% change of having a change above this level.

老师好,1、P(Z小于-1.73)的概率,通过网上查到的正态分布表,左列都是从0老师,没有负值,怎么查呢?

2、P(Z小于z)的概率是0.01,查表z等于-3.08,这种不是累计概率反函数?具体怎么查表呢?

2 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年05月31日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


答案的解析过程有问题。“ P(Z < z) = 99.9%, which gives z = -3.08.”这句话不对,应该是P(Z < z) = 1-99.9%=0.1%. 此处的z值=-3.08. (查表结果有误差是正常的,本题根据表里的数据可以用-3.08或-3.09)。


完整的解析请你看我下面写的过程:


在Z分布(标准状态分布)中,函数是针对0轴完全对称的,所以P(X小于-3.08) = P(X大于3.08),就是下面两个红色区域的概率是相等的。


查表可知:0.999概率对应的z值=3.0+0.08=3.08,说明P(X小于等于3.08) = 99.9%,所以P(X大于3.08) = 1-99.9%= 0.1%,

根据我画的图,红色区域概率相等,所以P(X小于-3.08) = P(X大于3.08) = 0.1%.


本题是问我们“firm’s loss was less than the line of credit in 99.9% months”,意思是要保证公司的损失不可超过99.9%分位点,既然是损失,那问的就是左尾的分位点,所以z值取左尾的-3.08。



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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

梦梦 · 2024年06月02日

好的,明白了

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年05月27日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


首先要明确,查表查出来的概率都是P(Z ≤ z)。


因为标准正态分布是相对于0轴对称的,所以P(Z小于-1.73) = P(Z大于1.73)。

P(Z大于1.73) = 1-P(Z≤1.73),查表可知1.73对应的概率值是0.9582:

所以P(Z大于1.73) = 1-P(Z≤1.73) = 1-0.9582 = 4.18%.



第二种情况下,p(Z小于z)的概率应该是99.9%,从表里可以找到0.999的数字:

这个数字对应的左侧纵轴数字3.0,横轴是0.08,所以0.999概率对应的z值=3.0+0.08=3.08.

但是b小问,问的是loss(损失),所以z值应该取负数,即z = -3.08才对。


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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

梦梦 · 2024年05月31日

“所以z值应该取负数,即z = -3.08才对。”这里不太明白,只是为了体现是“损失”才加的“-”,而不是真的P(X小于等于-3.08)对吗?如果是P(X小于等于-3.08),就等于1-P(X小于等于3.08),就等于1%了?

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